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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are modestly higher this morning following a relatively quiet overnight trading session.

There will be no weekly jobless claims data to review today as the government shutdown rolls on. The minutes of the September 17 FOMC meeting were released yesterday afternoon, and there were no major surprises. The general market assessment appears to be marginally more hawkish, but there was no material change in fed funds futures in the aftermath of their release. There are doves on the committee who are more worried about downside labor market risks than inflation, while others are in the complete opposite camp, feeling that the current funds rate is already close to the neutral level. Several Fed leaders speak today, including Fed Chair Powell this morning and multiple appearances from Governor Bowman.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
10/9/2025List of US Economic Indicators Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/9/2025Weekly Jobless Claims Delayed by US Shutdown   
10/9/2025Wholesale Trade Report Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/10/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment54     —55.1
10/10/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions60     —60.4
10/10/2025U. of Mich. Expectations51.4     —51.7
10/10/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.70%     —4.70%
10/10/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.70%     —3.70%
10/10/2025Federal Budget Balance$55.0b     —-$344.8b
10/14/2025NFIB Small Business Optimism     —     —100.8
10/15/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-4.70%
10/15/2025Empire Manufacturing0     —-8.7
10/15/2025CPI MoM0.40%     —0.40%
10/15/2025Core CPI MoM0.30%     —0.30%
10/15/2025CPI YoY3.10%     —2.90%
10/15/2025Core CPI YoY3.10%     —3.10%
10/15/2025CPI Index NSA     —     —323.976
10/15/2025Core CPI Index SA     —     —329.793
10/15/2025Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —0.70%
10/15/2025Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —0.40%
10/15/2025Fed Releases Beige Book   
10/16/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM0.40%     —0.60%
10/16/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%     —0.70%
10/16/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%     —0.70%
10/16/2025Retail Sales Control Group0.30%     —0.70%
10/16/2025PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%     —-0.10%
10/16/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%     —-0.10%
10/16/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM     —     —0.30%
10/16/2025PPI Final Demand YoY     —     —2.60%
10/16/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY     —     —2.80%
10/16/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —2.80%
10/16/2025New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-19.4
10/16/2025Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook7     —23.2
10/16/2025Initial Jobless Claims     —     —     —
10/16/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —     —
10/16/2025Continuing Claims     —     —1926k
10/16/2025Business Inventories0.20%     —0.20%
10/16/2025NAHB Housing Market Index     —     —32

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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