A hotter-than-expected June PPI report is contributing to a modest retracing of yesterday’s post-CPI rally.
PPI excluding food, energy, and trade (core) was flat m/m versus 0.2% expected, but the other measures were higher than expected. Additionally, the May figures were all revised higher from the previous estimates. Treasury yields have been a bit choppy in the immediate reaction to the data as market participants weigh the softer core figure versus upside surprises in other categories and some sub-components. Next week we will receive a fresh look at retail sales data on Tuesday. Following yesterday’s CPI report, fed funds futures are now fully priced for a September rate hike.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 7/12/2024 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.10% | 0.20% | -0.20% | 0.00% |
| 7/12/2024 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.00% | 0.30% |
| 7/12/2024 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.20% |
| 7/12/2024 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.30% | 2.60% | 2.20% | 2.40% |
| 7/12/2024 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.50% | 3.00% | 2.30% | 2.60% |
| 7/12/2024 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | 3.10% | 3.20% | 3.30% |
| 7/12/2024 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 68.5 | — | 68.2 | — |
| 7/12/2024 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 66 | — | 65.9 | — |
| 7/12/2024 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 69.3 | — | 69.6 | — |
| 7/12/2024 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 2.90% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 7/12/2024 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.00% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 7/15/2024 | Empire Manufacturing | -8 | — | -6 | — |
| 7/16/2024 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | -4.7 | — |
| 7/16/2024 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | -0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 7/16/2024 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.10% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 7/16/2024 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 7/16/2024 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.20% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 7/16/2024 | Import Price Index MoM | — | — | -0.40% | — |
| 7/16/2024 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | — | — | -0.30% | — |
| 7/16/2024 | Import Price Index YoY | — | — | 1.10% | — |
| 7/16/2024 | Export Price Index MoM | — | — | -0.60% | — |
| 7/16/2024 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 0.60% | — |
| 7/16/2024 | Business Inventories | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 7/16/2024 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 43 | — | 43 | — |
| 7/17/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -0.20% | — |
| 7/17/2024 | Building Permits | 1395k | — | 1386k | 1399k |
| 7/17/2024 | Housing Starts | 1300k | — | 1277k | — |
| 7/17/2024 | Housing Starts MoM | 1.80% | — | -5.50% | — |
| 7/17/2024 | Building Permits MoM | -0.30% | — | -3.80% | -2.80% |
| 7/17/2024 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.90% | 0.70% |
| 7/17/2024 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | -0.10% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 7/17/2024 | Capacity Utilization | 78.50% | — | 78.70% | 78.20% |
| 7/17/2024 | Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 7/18/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 222k | — |
| 7/18/2024 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 2.9 | — | 1.3 | — |
| 7/18/2024 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1852k | — |
| 7/18/2024 | Leading Index | -0.30% | — | -0.50% | — |
| 7/18/2024 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $66.2b | — |
| 7/18/2024 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $123.1b | — |
| 7/19/2024 | Bloomberg July United States Economic Survey |
