An overnight sell-off in Treasuries that has pushed the yield curve higher and steeper is being dubbed the ‘Trump trade’ this morning.
With polling data improving for the former president in the wake of the failed assassination attempt, the bond market is purportedly pricing for increased chances of certain policy decisions that would increase the budget deficit, including tax cuts. A similar trade emerged following the presidential debate on June 28. To be fair, increasing federal budget deficits has been perhaps the most bipartisan effort by both Congress and the White House for many years now. The economic calendar for this week is headlined by the June retail sales report tomorrow. Fed Chair Powell will be interviewed by David Rubenstein later today, and several other Fed leaders are scheduled to speak this week as well for the first time publicly since last week’s softer June CPI report.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 07/15/24 | Empire Manufacturing | -7.6 | -6.6 | -6 | — |
| 07/16/24 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | -4.7 | — |
| 07/16/24 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | -0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 07/16/24 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.10% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 07/16/24 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 07/16/24 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.20% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 07/16/24 | Import Price Index MoM | -0.20% | — | -0.40% | — |
| 07/16/24 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | -0.10% | — | -0.30% | — |
| 07/16/24 | Import Price Index YoY | 1.10% | — | 1.10% | — |
| 07/16/24 | Export Price Index MoM | -0.10% | — | -0.60% | — |
| 07/16/24 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 0.60% | — |
| 07/16/24 | Business Inventories | 0.50% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 07/16/24 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 43 | — | 43 | — |
| 07/17/24 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -0.20% | — |
| 07/17/24 | Building Permits | 1400k | — | 1386k | 1399k |
| 07/17/24 | Housing Starts | 1300k | — | 1277k | — |
| 07/17/24 | Housing Starts MoM | 1.80% | — | -5.50% | — |
| 07/17/24 | Building Permits MoM | 0.10% | — | -3.80% | -2.80% |
| 07/17/24 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.90% | 0.70% |
| 07/17/24 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.20% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 07/17/24 | Capacity Utilization | 78.40% | — | 78.70% | 78.20% |
| 07/17/24 | Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 07/18/24 | Initial Jobless Claims | 230k | — | 222k | — |
| 07/18/24 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 2.9 | — | 1.3 | — |
| 07/18/24 | Continuing Claims | 1856k | — | 1852k | — |
| 07/18/24 | Leading Index | -0.30% | — | -0.50% | — |
| 07/18/24 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $66.2b | — |
| 07/18/24 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $123.1b | — |
| 07/19/24 | Bloomberg July United States Economic Survey |
