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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Retail sales were softer than expected in May, and the April report was revised lower as well. 

Headline sales rose 0.1% m/m in May (0.3% expected), weighed down by a 2.2% m/m decline in gas station receipts. The retail sales control group, which is used in the GDP calculation, rose 0.4% in May (0.5% expected), and the April figure was revised down from -0.3% to -0.5%. This was a modest miss versus expectations in May, but when also considering the April revisions, it follows the trend of softer consumer spending going back to February. Treasury yields are down 3-5 basis points in the immediate reaction to the data release. Six different Fed leaders are scheduled to speak today.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/18/2024New York Fed Services Business Activity—-4.73—
6/18/2024Retail Sales Advance MoM0.30%0.10%0.00%-0.20%
6/18/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%-0.10%0.20%-0.10%
6/18/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%0.10%-0.10%-0.30%
6/18/2024Retail Sales Control Group0.50%0.40%-0.30%-0.50%
6/18/2024Industrial Production MoM0.30%—0.00%—
6/18/2024Capacity Utilization78.60%—78.40%—
6/18/2024Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.30%—-0.30%—
6/18/2024Business Inventories0.30%—-0.10%—
6/18/2024Total Net TIC Flows——$102.1b—
6/18/2024Net Long-term TIC Flows——$100.5b—
6/19/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——15.60%—
6/19/2024NAHB Housing Market Index46—45—
6/20/2024Current Account Balance-$206.8b—-$194.8b—
6/20/2024Initial Jobless Claims235k—242k—
6/20/2024Continuing Claims1810k—1820k—
6/20/2024Housing Starts1370k—1360k—
6/20/2024Building Permits1450k—1440k—
6/20/2024Housing Starts MoM0.70%—5.70%—
6/20/2024Building Permits MoM0.70%—-3.00%—
6/20/2024Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook5—4.5—
6/21/2024S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI51—51.3—
6/21/2024S&P Global US Services PMI54—54.8—
6/21/2024S&P Global US Composite PMI53.5—54.5—
6/21/2024Leading Index-0.30%—-0.60%—
6/21/2024Existing Home Sales4.10m—4.14m—
6/21/2024Existing Home Sales MoM-1.10%—-1.90%—
6/24/2024Bloomberg June United States Economic Survey    
6/24/2024Dallas Fed Manf. Activity——-19.4—
6/25/2024Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity——-0.6—
6/25/2024Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index——-0.23—
6/25/2024FHFA House Price Index MoM——0.10%—
6/25/2024S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA——0.33%—
6/25/2024S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA——6.49%—
6/25/2024S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA——7.38%—
6/25/2024Conf. Board Consumer Confidence100—102—
6/25/2024Conf. Board Present Situation——143.1—
6/25/2024Conf. Board Expectations——74.6—
6/25/2024Richmond Fed Manufact. Index——0—
6/25/2024Richmond Fed Business Conditions——-9—
6/25/2024Dallas Fed Services Activity——-12.1—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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