The Treasury curve is flatter, with the front end of the yield curve 2 to 4 bps higher, while the long end is essentially unchanged as the market continues to digest the impact of US tariffs.
Investors are concerned that tariffs will push inflation higher and consumers will slow their spending, hurting economic growth. An analysis by ING estimates that the tariffs could cost US consumers roughly $835 per person.
Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior |
| 02/03/25 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 50.1 | — | 50.1 |
| 02/03/25 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.00% |
| 02/03/25 | ISM Manufacturing | 49.9 | — | 49.3 |
| 02/03/25 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 52.5 |
| 02/03/25 | ISM Employment | — | — | 45.3 |
| 02/03/25 | ISM Prices Paid | 54.8 | — | 52.5 |
| 02/03/25 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.00m | — | 16.80m |
| 02/04/25 | JOLTS Job Openings | 8000k | — | 8098k |
| 02/04/25 | JOLTS Job Openings Rate | — | — | 4.80% |
| 02/04/25 | JOLTS Quits Level | — | — | 3065k |
| 02/04/25 | JOLTS Quits Rate | — | — | 1.90% |
| 02/04/25 | JOLTS Layoffs Level | — | — | 1765k |
| 02/04/25 | JOLTS Layoffs Rate | — | — | 1.10% |
| 02/04/25 | Factory Orders | -0.70% | — | -0.40% |
| 02/04/25 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.20% |
| 02/04/25 | Durable Goods Orders | -2.20% | — | -2.20% |
| 02/04/25 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.30% | — | 0.30% |
| 02/04/25 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.50% |
| 02/04/25 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.60% |
| 02/05/25 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -2.00% |
| 02/05/25 | ADP Employment Change | 150k | — | 122k |
| 02/05/25 | Trade Balance | -$96.8b | — | -$78.2b |
| 02/05/25 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 52.8 | — | 52.8 |
| 02/05/25 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 52.4 |
| 02/05/25 | ISM Services Index | 54.1 | — | 54.1 |
| 02/05/25 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 54.2 |
| 02/05/25 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 51.4 |
| 02/05/25 | ISM Services Prices Paid | — | — | 64.4 |
| 02/06/25 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 11.40% |
| 02/06/25 | Nonfarm Productivity | 1.40% | — | 2.20% |
| 02/06/25 | Unit Labor Costs | 3.40% | — | 0.80% |
| 02/06/25 | Initial Jobless Claims | 213k | — | 207k |
| 02/06/25 | Continuing Claims | 1875k | — | 1858k |
| 02/07/25 | Annual Revisions: Establishment Survey Data | |||
| 02/07/25 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 170k | — | 256k |
| 02/07/25 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -8k |
| 02/07/25 | Change in Private Payrolls | 140k | — | 223k |
| 02/07/25 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | -2k | — | -13k |
| 02/07/25 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% |
| 02/07/25 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.80% | — | 3.90% |
| 02/07/25 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.3 | — | 34.3 |
| 02/07/25 | Unemployment Rate | 4.10% | — | 4.10% |
| 02/07/25 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.50% | — | 62.50% |
| 02/07/25 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.50% |
| 02/07/25 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 72 | — | 71.1 |
| 02/07/25 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -0.50% | — | -0.50% |
| 02/07/25 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 0.60% |
| 02/07/25 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 73.5 | — | 74 |
| 02/07/25 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 71 | — | 69.3 |
| 02/07/25 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 3.20% | — | 3.30% |
| 02/07/25 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.10% | — | 3.20% |
| 02/07/25 | Consumer Credit | $14.500b | — | -$7.489b |
