Yesterday’s rally in Treasuries has carried over into this morning’s session, with yields 3-6 basis points lower across the curve.
Equity futures are lower ahead of the open on weaker earnings from Alphabet and AMG, and China reports that it is probing Apple’s app-store fees and practices. On the data front, mortgage refi applications jumped last week according to the MBA survey. Conventional refi apps jumped 12.2% last week after falling 9.7% the previous two weeks combined, and in the more volatile VA loan space, refi apps surged 32.1% following a falling 37.1% the prior two weeks. January ISM data and final estimates of January S&P PMI data will be released later this morning. Four different Fed leaders are also scheduled to speak today.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 2/5/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 2.20% | -2.00% | — |
| 2/5/2025 | ADP Employment Change | 150k | 183k | 122k | 176k |
| 2/5/2025 | Trade Balance | -$96.8b | -$98.4b | -$78.2b | -$78.9b |
| 2/5/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 52.9 | — | 52.8 | — |
| 2/5/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 52.5 | — | 52.4 | — |
| 2/5/2025 | ISM Services Index | 54 | — | 54.1 | 54 |
| 2/5/2025 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 54.2 | 54.4 |
| 2/5/2025 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 51.4 | 51.3 |
| 2/5/2025 | ISM Services Prices Paid | 65.1 | — | 64.4 | — |
| 2/6/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 11.40% | — |
| 2/6/2025 | Nonfarm Productivity | 1.20% | — | 2.20% | — |
| 2/6/2025 | Unit Labor Costs | 3.40% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 2/6/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 213k | — | 207k | — |
| 2/6/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1870k | — | 1858k | — |
| 2/7/2025 | Annual Revisions: Establishment Survey Data | ||||
| 2/7/2025 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 170k | — | 256k | — |
| 2/7/2025 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -8k | — |
| 2/7/2025 | Change in Private Payrolls | 150k | — | 223k | — |
| 2/7/2025 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | -2k | — | -13k | — |
| 2/7/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 2/7/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.80% | — | 3.90% | — |
| 2/7/2025 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.3 | — | 34.3 | — |
| 2/7/2025 | Unemployment Rate | 4.10% | — | 4.10% | — |
| 2/7/2025 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.50% | — | 62.50% | — |
| 2/7/2025 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.50% | — |
| 2/7/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 71.7 | — | 71.1 | — |
| 2/7/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -0.50% | — | -0.50% | — |
| 2/7/2025 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 2/7/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 73.6 | — | 74 | — |
| 2/7/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 70.1 | — | 69.3 | — |
| 2/7/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 3.30% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 2/7/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.20% | — | 3.20% | — |
| 2/7/2025 | Consumer Credit | $18.000b | — | -$7.489b | — |
| 2/10/2025 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.00% | — |
| 2/11/2025 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 104 | — | 105.1 | — |
| 2/12/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 2.20% | — |
| 2/12/2025 | Annual Revisions: CPI | ||||
| 2/12/2025 | CPI MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 2/12/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 2/12/2025 | CPI YoY | 2.90% | — | 2.90% | — |
| 2/12/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.20% | — | 3.20% | — |
| 2/12/2025 | CPI Index NSA | — | — | 315.605 | — |
| 2/12/2025 | CPI Core Index SA | — | — | 323.383 | — |
| 2/12/2025 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.70% | — |
| 2/12/2025 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 1.00% | — |
| 2/12/2025 | Federal Budget Balance | — | — | -$86.7b | — |
