Treasury yields are modestly higher to start the day.
The Bank of England announced a 25-basis point rate cut today and guided for more cuts this year while cutting its 2025 growth forecast in half. In other news, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration is more focused on bringing 10-year yields lower as opposed to more Fed rate cuts. One initiative is to increase energy supply and push oil and gasoline prices down. When interviewing for the position, Bessent touted a 3-3-3 program, a reference to getting the fiscal deficit down to 3% of GDP (currently 7%), boosting oil production by 3 million barrels a day, and sustaining GDP growth of 3%. While deficit reduction is the greatest challenge, this effort may also be challenged by tariff and immigration policies. If successful, lowering long-end yields would be positive for housing affordability and commercial real estate financing stress, assuming it can be done without significant economic contraction.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 2/6/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | -39.50% | 11.40% | — |
| 2/6/2025 | Nonfarm Productivity | 1.20% | 1.20% | 2.20% | 2.30% |
| 2/6/2025 | Unit Labor Costs | 3.40% | 3.00% | 0.80% | 0.50% |
| 2/6/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 213k | 219k | 207k | 208k |
| 2/6/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1870k | 1886k | 1858k | 1850k |
| 2/7/2025 | Annual Revisions: Establishment Survey Data | ||||
| 2/7/2025 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 170k | — | 256k | — |
| 2/7/2025 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -8k | — |
| 2/7/2025 | Change in Private Payrolls | 150k | — | 223k | — |
| 2/7/2025 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | -2k | — | -13k | — |
| 2/7/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 2/7/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.80% | — | 3.90% | — |
| 2/7/2025 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.3 | — | 34.3 | — |
| 2/7/2025 | Unemployment Rate | 4.10% | — | 4.10% | — |
| 2/7/2025 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.50% | — | 62.50% | — |
| 2/7/2025 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.50% | — |
| 2/7/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 71.7 | — | 71.1 | — |
| 2/7/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -0.50% | — | -0.50% | — |
| 2/7/2025 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 2/7/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 73.6 | — | 74 | — |
| 2/7/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 70.1 | — | 69.3 | — |
| 2/7/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 3.30% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 2/7/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.20% | — | 3.20% | — |
| 2/7/2025 | Consumer Credit | $16.500b | — | -$7.489b | — |
| 2/10/2025 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.00% | — |
| 2/11/2025 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 104 | — | 105.1 | — |
| 2/12/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 2.20% | — |
| 2/12/2025 | Annual Revisions: CPI | ||||
| 2/12/2025 | CPI MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 2/12/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 2/12/2025 | CPI YoY | 2.90% | — | 2.90% | — |
| 2/12/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.10% | — | 3.20% | — |
| 2/12/2025 | CPI Index NSA | — | — | 315.605 | — |
| 2/12/2025 | CPI Core Index SA | — | — | 323.383 | — |
| 2/12/2025 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.70% | — |
| 2/12/2025 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 1.00% | — |
| 2/12/2025 | Federal Budget Balance | — | — | -$86.7b | — |
| 2/13/2025 | Annual Revisions: PPI | ||||
| 2/13/2025 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 2/13/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 2/13/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 2/13/2025 | PPI Final Demand YoY | — | — | 3.30% | — |
| 2/13/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | — | — | 3.50% | — |
| 2/13/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 3.30% | — |
| 2/13/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 219k | — |
| 2/13/2025 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1886k | — |
