Author Jason Haley
Published February 7, 2025
Estimated
Nonfarm payrolls added 143,000 jobs in January, 32,000 less than expected, but the prior two months were revised higher by 111,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings popped to 0.5% m/m and 4.1% y/y, both notably above expectations. In the household survey, the unemployment rate fell 10 bps to 4% while the labor participation rate also increased. Treasury yields are 4-6 bps higher in the initial market reaction. The January report also included annual benchmark revisions, and downward revisions to job growth from April 2023 – March 2024 were less than expected, which is also contributing to the market reaction. Later this morning, the February University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey results will be released.
Jason Haley Chief Investment Officer
Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised 2/7/2025 Annual Revisions: Establishment Survey Data 2/7/2025 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 175k 143k 256k 307k 2/7/2025 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision — 100k -8k — 2/7/2025 Change in Private Payrolls 158k 111k 223k 273k 2/7/2025 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 1k 3k -13k -12k 2/7/2025 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.30% 0.50% 0.30% — 2/7/2025 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 3.80% 4.10% 3.90% 4.10% 2/7/2025 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.3 34.1 34.3 34.2 2/7/2025 Unemployment Rate 4.10% 4.00% 4.10% — 2/7/2025 Labor Force Participation Rate 62.50% 62.60% 62.50% — 2/7/2025 Underemployment Rate — 7.50% 7.50% — 2/7/2025 U. of Mich. Sentiment 71.8 — 71.1 — 2/7/2025 Wholesale Inventories MoM -0.50% — -0.50% — 2/7/2025 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.50% — 0.60% — 2/7/2025 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 73.7 — 74 — 2/7/2025 U. of Mich. Expectations 70.1 — 69.3 — 2/7/2025 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 3.30% — 3.30% — 2/7/2025 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 3.20% — 3.20% — 2/7/2025 Consumer Credit $14.550b — -$7.489b —
Jason Haley Chief Investment Officer
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