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Author Jason Haley

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Treasury yields are little changed to start day 2 of the federal government shutdown.

The most notable data release for today, initial jobless claims, is postponed amid the funding pause. In an effort to exert pressure on congressional Democrats, President Trump is meeting with White House Budget Director Russell Vought to discuss potential federal workforce cuts and halting of funding for projects in states that voted for Kamala Harris in the last election. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, a voting FOMC member this year, has expressed concern this week that inflation readings have been “going the wrong way” for several months and that the lack of data during the government shutdown is ‘problematic’ for Fed leaders trying to discern whether inflation is truly transitioning back toward the 2% target.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
10/2/2025Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —-25.80%13.30%
10/2/2025Weekly Jobless Claims Delayed by US Shutdown   
10/2/2025Aug. Factory Orders Delayed by US Shutdown   
10/3/2025Change in Nonfarm Payrolls52k     —22k
10/3/2025Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-21k
10/3/2025Change in Private Payrolls65k     —38k
10/3/2025Change in Manufact. Payrolls-8k     —-12k
10/3/2025Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —29k
10/3/2025Unemployment Rate4.30%     —4.30%
10/3/2025Labor Force Participation Rate62.30%     —62.30%
10/3/2025Underemployment Rate     —     —8.10%
10/3/2025Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.30%
10/3/2025Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.70%     —3.70%
10/3/2025Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.2     —34.2
10/3/2025S&P Global US Services PMI53.9     —53.9
10/3/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI53.6     —53.6
10/3/2025ISM Services Index51.7     —52
10/3/2025ISM Services Prices Paid68     —69.2
10/3/2025ISM Services New Orders54     —56
10/3/2025ISM Services Employment46.6     —46.5
10/7/2025Trade Balance-$61.4b     —-$78.3b
10/7/2025Exports MoM     —     —0.30%
10/7/2025Imports MoM     —     —5.90%
10/7/2025NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.20%
10/7/2025Consumer Credit$15.000b     —$16.010b
10/8/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-12.70%
10/8/2025FOMC Meeting Minutes     —     —     —
10/9/2025Initial Jobless Claims     —     —     —
10/9/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —     —
10/9/2025Continuing Claims     —     —     —
10/9/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —1.40%
10/9/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —-0.20%

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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