Treasury yields are 3-4 basis points lower across the curve to start the week following a wave of fresh Fedspeak following last Wednesday’s meeting.
Fed Chair Powell characterized the discussion at that meeting as representative of “strongly differing views.” On Friday, Dallas Fed President Logan, Cleveland Fed President Hammack, and Kansas City Fed President Schmid all generally expressed concern that inflation risks still linger that labor market risks have already been mitigated following the rate cuts of the last 14 months. On the other end of the spectrum, Fed Governor Waller said over the weekend that “we know inflation is going to come down…,” and Trump economic advisor Stephen Miran (most recent addition to Fed board of governors) said he has “no concern about inflation on the upside” and that the Fed risks a recession without executing rapid rate cuts. Despite these strongly differing views, expected interest rate volatility, as measured by the ICE BofA MOVE Index, continues to hold near a 4-year low. Later this morning, October manufacturing data from S&P and ISM will be released.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 11/3/2025 | List of US Economic Indicators Delayed by Government Shutdown | |||
| 11/3/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 52.2 | — | 52.2 |
| 11/3/2025 | Construction Spending Report Delayed by Government Shutdown | |||
| 11/3/2025 | ISM Manufacturing | 49.5 | — | 49.1 |
| 11/3/2025 | ISM Prices Paid | 62.5 | — | 61.9 |
| 11/3/2025 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 48.9 |
| 11/3/2025 | ISM Employment | — | — | 45.3 |
| 11/3/2025 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 15.50m | — | 16.39m |
| 11/4/2025 | Trade Balance | — | — | — |
| 11/4/2025 | Exports MoM | — | — | — |
| 11/4/2025 | Imports MoM | — | — | — |
| 11/4/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings | 7163k | — | 7227k |
| 11/4/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings Rate | — | — | 4.30% |
| 11/4/2025 | JOLTS Quits Level | — | — | 3091k |
| 11/4/2025 | JOLTS Quits Rate | — | — | 1.90% |
| 11/4/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Level | — | — | 1725k |
| 11/4/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Rate | — | — | 1.10% |
| 11/4/2025 | Factory Orders | — | — | — |
| 11/4/2025 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | — |
| 11/4/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | — |
| 11/4/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | — |
| 11/4/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | — |
| 11/4/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | — |
| 11/5/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 7.10% |
| 11/5/2025 | ADP Employment Change | 35k | — | -32k |
| 11/5/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 55.2 | — | 55.2 |
| 11/5/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 54.8 | — | 54.8 |
| 11/5/2025 | ISM Services Index | 50.8 | — | 50 |
| 11/5/2025 | ISM Services Prices Paid | — | — | 69.4 |
| 11/5/2025 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 50.4 |
| 11/5/2025 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 47.2 |
| 11/6/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | -25.80% |
| 11/6/2025 | Nonfarm Productivity | 3.30% | — | 3.30% |
| 11/6/2025 | Unit Labor Costs | 1.00% | — | 1.00% |
| 11/6/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | — | — |
| 11/6/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | — |
| 11/6/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1946k | — | — |
| 11/6/2025 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | — |
| 11/6/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | — |
| 11/7/2025 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 41k | — | — |
| 11/7/2025 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | — |
| 11/7/2025 | Change in Private Payrolls | — | — | — |
| 11/7/2025 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | — | — | — |
| 11/7/2025 | Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg | — | — | — |
| 11/7/2025 | Unemployment Rate | 4.40% | — | — |
| 11/7/2025 | Labor Force Participation Rate | — | — | — |
| 11/7/2025 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | — |
| 11/7/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | — | — | — |
| 11/7/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | — | — | — |
| 11/7/2025 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | — | — | — |
| 11/7/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 53 | — | 53.6 |
| 11/7/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 59.5 | — | 58.6 |
| 11/7/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 50.7 | — | 50.3 |
| 11/7/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 4.60% | — | 4.60% |
| 11/7/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.80% | — | 3.90% |
| 11/7/2025 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.38% |
| 11/7/2025 | Consumer Credit | $10.730b | — | $0.363b |
