Treasury yields are drifting modestly higher and steeper in quiet trading heading into the holiday weekend.
There are no major economic releases today, but we will hear from a few different Fed leaders, including Governor Michelle Bowman. There will be no early close in the bond market today ahead of Monday’s MLK holiday, but liquidity should weaken as the day progresses. Looking ahead to next week, the Fed will be in the blackout period ahead of the January 28 meeting, and on the data front, we’ll get another round of weekly jobless claims data as well as the November personal income and spending data.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 1/16/2026 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | -16.1 | -20 |
| 1/16/2026 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.20% |
| 1/16/2026 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | -0.10% | — | 0.00% |
| 1/16/2026 | Capacity Utilization | 76.00% | — | 76.00% |
| 1/16/2026 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 40 | — | 39 |
| 1/20/2026 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | — | — | 11.750k |
| 1/20/2026 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | — | -16.8 |
| 1/21/2026 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 28.50% |
| 1/21/2026 | Census Releases Sept.-Oct. Construction Spending on Jan. 21 | |||
| 1/21/2026 | Leading Index | — | — | -0.30% |
| 1/21/2026 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.10% | — | — |
| 1/21/2026 | Pending Home Sales MoM | — | — | 3.30% |
| 1/21/2026 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | -0.30% |
| 1/22/2026 | BEA to Release Oct.-Nov. Personal Income on Jan. 22 | |||
| 1/22/2026 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 4.30% | — | 4.30% |
| 1/22/2026 | Personal Consumption | — | — | 3.50% |
| 1/22/2026 | GDP Price Index | — | — | 3.80% |
| 1/22/2026 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | — | — | 2.90% |
| 1/22/2026 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 198k |
| 1/22/2026 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 205.00k |
| 1/22/2026 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1884k |
| 1/22/2026 | Personal Income | 0.40% | — | — |
| 1/22/2026 | Personal Spending | 0.50% | — | — |
| 1/22/2026 | Real Personal Spending | — | — | — |
| 1/22/2026 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | — |
| 1/22/2026 | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.70% | — | — |
| 1/22/2026 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | — |
| 1/22/2026 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.80% | — | — |
| 1/22/2026 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | 1 |
| 1/23/2026 | Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey | |||
| 1/23/2026 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 52 | — | 51.8 |
| 1/23/2026 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 52.8 | — | 52.5 |
| 1/23/2026 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 52.7 |
| 1/23/2026 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 54 | — | 54 |
| 1/23/2026 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 52.4 |
| 1/23/2026 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 55 |
| 1/23/2026 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 4.20% |
| 1/23/2026 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.40% |
| 1/23/2026 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 3 |