Site Search

Looking for something? Use the search bar below or visit our Resources page.


Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

A meltdown in long-end Japanese bond yields and escalated rhetoric related to Greenland is weighing on U.S. markets to start the day.

In Japan, a very poor 20-year debt auction and general fiscal worries triggered a more than 25 basis point increase in long-end yields overnight. Separately, President Trump’s demands for the U.S. to get Greenland has been met with measured pushback from European leaders, sparking market concerns of an escalated trade war. U.S. equity futures are down 1-2% more than an hour ahead of the open, and the Treasury curve is moving steeper with long end yields 5-8 basis points higher. There are no major economic data releases today, and the Fed has entered its speaking blackout period ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
1/20/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —8.000k11.750k11.250k
1/20/2026Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —-4.2-16.8-21.6
1/21/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —28.50%     —
1/21/2026Census Releases Sept.-Oct. Construction Spending on Jan. 21    
1/21/2026Construction Spending MoM0.10%     —     —     —
1/21/2026Pending Home Sales MoM-0.50%     —3.30%     —
1/21/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —-0.30%     —
1/22/2026GDP Annualized QoQ4.30%     —4.30%     —
1/22/2026Personal Consumption3.50%     —3.50%     —
1/22/2026GDP Price Index3.80%     —3.80%     —
1/22/2026Core PCE Price Index QoQ2.90%     —2.90%     —
1/22/2026Initial Jobless Claims210k     —198k     —
1/22/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —205.00k     —
1/22/2026Continuing Claims1895k     —1884k     —
1/22/2026BEA to Release Oct.-Nov. Personal Income on Jan. 22    
1/22/2026Personal Income0.40%     —     —     —
1/22/2026Personal Spending0.50%     —     —     —
1/22/2026Real Personal Spending0.30%     —     —     —
1/22/2026PCE Price Index MoM0.20%     —     —     —
1/22/2026PCE Price Index YoY2.80%     —     —     —
1/22/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM0.20%     —     —     —
1/22/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY2.80%     —     —     —
1/22/2026Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity4     —1     —
1/23/2026Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey    
1/23/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI52     —51.8     —
1/23/2026S&P Global US Services PMI52.9     —52.5     —
1/23/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI53     —52.7     —
1/23/2026Leading Index-0.20%     —-0.30%-0.30%
1/23/2026Conference Board Releases Oct. and Nov. Leading Index Data    
1/23/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment54     —54     —
1/23/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —52.4     —
1/23/2026U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —55     —
1/23/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.20%     —
1/23/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation     —     —3.40%     —
1/23/2026Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —3     —
1/26/2026Chicago Fed to Release TBD Period National Activity Index    
1/26/2026Durable Goods Orders3.30%     —-2.20%     —
1/26/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —0.10%     —
1/26/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.50%     —
1/26/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.80%     —
1/26/2026Dallas Fed Manf. Activity     —     —-10.9     —
1/27/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —8.000k     —
1/27/2026FHFA House Price Index MoM     —     —0.40%     —
1/27/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA     —     —0.32%     —
1/27/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA     —     —1.31%     —
1/27/2026S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —1.36%     —
1/27/2026Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —-7     —
1/27/2026Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-11     —
1/27/2026Conf. Board Consumer Confidence90.1     —89.1     —
1/27/2026Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —116.8     —
1/27/2026Conf. Board Expectations     —     —70.7     —
1/27/2026Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —-3.3     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

  Headline Disclaimer

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.

Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.

Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.



Recent Beyond The Headlines


  Headlines RSS
Strategic Partners

Let’s Work Together

ALM First is your agile partner with a trusted history of delivering results.