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Author Jason Haley

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Treasury yields are little changed as the market awaits fresh guidance from the Fed this afternoon.

The FOMC is expected to leave the fed funds rate unchanged today, and market participants will be more focused on the tone of the committee’s guidance via the official statement and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. The bond market is currently priced for a Fed pause at least until this summer. The hawks of the FOMC are unlikely to be comforted by the recent rise in market inflation expectations and the ongoing weakening of the US dollar. Regarding the former, the 2-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) breakeven yield, a measure of market inflation expectations over that timeframe, has risen nearly 45 basis points (bps) since late December to 2.72%.  

Mortgage application activity cooled last week following a strong 3-week run. The MBA mortgage activity index slipped 8.5%, led by a 15.7% decline in refinance applications compared to the prior week. The average 30-year conventional contract rate rose 8 bps over the week to 6.24%, and after falling 48 bps in the second week of January, the average 5-year ARM rate rose 14 bps to 5.56% according to the MBA survey.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
1/28/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —-8.50%14.10%
1/28/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)3.75%     —3.75%
1/28/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.50%     —3.50%
1/28/2026Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate3.65%     —3.65%
1/28/2026Fed Reverse Repo Rate     —     —3.50%
1/29/2026Nonfarm Productivity4.90%     —4.90%
1/29/2026Unit Labor Costs-1.90%     —-1.90%
1/29/2026Initial Jobless Claims205k     —200k
1/29/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —201.50k
1/29/2026Continuing Claims1855k     —1849k
1/29/2026Trade Balance-$44.1b     —-$29.4b
1/29/2026Exports MoM     —     —2.60%
1/29/2026Imports MoM     —     —-3.20%
1/29/2026Factory Orders1.60%     —-1.30%
1/29/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —-0.20%
1/29/2026Durable Goods Orders     —     —5.30%
1/29/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —0.50%
1/29/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.70%
1/29/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.40%
1/29/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%     —0.20%
1/29/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —-0.40%
1/30/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%     —0.20%
1/30/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%     —0.00%
1/30/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%     —0.20%
1/30/2026PPI Final Demand YoY2.80%     —3.00%
1/30/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.90%     —3.00%
1/30/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —3.50%
1/30/2026MNI Chicago PMI43.5     —43.5
2/01/2026-2/10/2026Final Benchmark Payrolls Revision     —     —     —
2/2/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —51.9
2/2/2026ISM Manufacturing48.3     —47.9
2/2/2026ISM Prices Paid     —     —58.5
2/2/2026ISM New Orders     —     —47.7
2/2/2026ISM Employment     —     —44.9
2/2/2026US Treasury Quarterly Borrowing Estimates   
2/3/2026JOLTS Job Openings     —     —7146k
2/3/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.30%
2/3/2026JOLTS Quits Level     —     —3161k
2/3/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.00%
2/3/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1687k
2/3/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.10%
2/03/2026Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.80m     —16.02m
2/4/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-8.50%
2/4/2026ADP Employment Change48k     —41k
2/4/2026US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement   
2/4/2026S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —52.5
2/4/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —52.8
2/4/2026ISM Services Index53     —54.4
2/4/2026ISM Services Prices Paid     —     —64.3
2/4/2026ISM Services New Orders     —     —57.9
2/4/2026ISM Services Employment     —     —52

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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