Treasury yields opened the day modestly lower and have held relatively steady following the morning’s economic reports.
Overnight trading volumes were more muted with European markets closed for holiday. Initial jobless claims rose more than expected to 211,000 last week, close to the 2026 average so far. April retail sales were largely in line with expectations. Sales excluding autos and gasoline exceeded expectations (0.5% vs. 0.3%), as did the control group (0.5% vs. 0.4%). The latter is used in the GDP report for personal consumption measurement. It is a full calendar of Fed speakers today, with six different leaders appearing at separate events.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 5/14/2026 | Import Price Index MoM | 1.00% | 1.90% | 0.80% | 0.90% |
| 5/14/2026 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.50% | 0.70% | 0.10% | 0.00% |
| 5/14/2026 | Import Price Index YoY | 3.10% | 4.20% | 2.10% | 2.30% |
| 5/14/2026 | Export Price Index MoM | 1.20% | 3.30% | 1.60% | 1.50% |
| 5/14/2026 | Export Price Index YoY | 7.00% | 8.80% | 5.60% | 5.40% |
| 5/14/2026 | Initial Jobless Claims | 205k | 211k | 200k | 199k |
| 5/14/2026 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | 203.75k | 203.25k | 203.00k |
| 5/14/2026 | Continuing Claims | 1780k | 1782k | 1766k | 1758k |
| 5/14/2026 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.50% | 0.50% | 1.70% | 1.60% |
| 5/14/2026 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.70% | 0.70% | 1.90% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | 0.50% | 0.60% | 0.70% |
| 5/14/2026 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | 0.50% | 0.70% | 0.80% |
| 5/14/2026 | Business Inventories | 0.90% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/15/2026 | Empire Manufacturing | 7.3 | — | 11 | — |
| 5/15/2026 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.50% | — |
| 5/15/2026 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.20% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 5/15/2026 | Capacity Utilization | 75.80% | — | 75.70% | — |
| 5/18/2026 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | -14 | — |
| 5/18/2026 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 34 | — | 34 | — |
| 5/18/2026 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $184.5b | — |
| 5/18/2026 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $58.6b | — |
| 5/19/2026 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | — | — | 33.000k | — |
| 5/19/2026 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 1.60% | — | 1.50% | — |
| 5/19/2026 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | 1.80% | — |
| 5/20/2026 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 1.70% | — |
| 5/20/2026 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 211k | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 203.75k | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1782k | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 12 | — | 26.7 | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Housing Starts | 1420k | — | 1502k | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Housing Starts MoM | -4.50% | — | 10.80% | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Building Permits | 1385k | — | 1363k | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Building Permits MoM | — | — | -11.40% | — |
| 5/21/2026 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | — | — | 54.5 | — |
| 5/21/2026 | S&P Global US Services PMI | — | — | 51 | — |
| 5/21/2026 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 51.7 | — |
| 5/21/2026 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | 10 | — |
