A relatively calm open for financial markets this morning was met with a hotter than expected wholesale inflation report.
Treasury yields have gone from slightly lower to slightly higher across the curve. The 2-year Treasury yield has eclipsed 4% for the first time since June 2025, and the 10-year yield is approaching 4.5%. The April PPI report showed headline inflation up 1.4% m/m versus 0.5% expected, and PPI excluding food, energy, and trade was double expectations at 0.6% m/m. This core measure rose 70 bps on a year-over-year basis to 4.4%. Looking at fed funds futures, the market is now pricing a 31% probability of a 25-basis point rate hike at the December FOMC meeting versus essentially a 0% probability at the end of April. Conversely, fed funds futures are pricing just a 3% probability of a rate cut at the December meeting.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 5/13/2026 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 1.70% | -4.40% | — |
| 5/13/2026 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.50% | 1.40% | 0.50% | 0.70% |
| 5/13/2026 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | 1.00% | 0.10% | 0.20% |
| 5/13/2026 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.30% | 0.60% | 0.20% | — |
| 5/13/2026 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 4.80% | 6.00% | 4.00% | 4.30% |
| 5/13/2026 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 4.30% | 5.20% | 3.80% | 4.00% |
| 5/13/2026 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | 4.10% | 4.40% | 3.60% | 3.70% |
| 5/14/2026 | Import Price Index MoM | 1.00% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Import Price Index YoY | 3.00% | — | 2.10% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Export Price Index MoM | 1.10% | — | 1.60% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Export Price Index YoY | 6.60% | — | 5.60% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Initial Jobless Claims | 205k | — | 200k | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 203.25k | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Continuing Claims | 1780k | — | 1766k | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.50% | — | 1.70% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.70% | — | 1.90% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Business Inventories | 0.90% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/15/2026 | Empire Manufacturing | 7.3 | — | 11 | — |
| 5/15/2026 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.50% | — |
| 5/15/2026 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.20% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 5/15/2026 | Capacity Utilization | 75.80% | — | 75.70% | — |
| 5/18/2026 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | -14 | — |
| 5/18/2026 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 34 | — | 34 | — |
| 5/18/2026 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $184.5b | — |
| 5/18/2026 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $58.6b | — |
| 5/19/2026 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | — | — | 33.000k | — |
| 5/19/2026 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 1.60% | — | 1.50% | — |
| 5/19/2026 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | 1.80% | — |
| 5/20/2026 | Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 5/20/2026 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 1.70% | — |
| 5/20/2026 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
