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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are 2-3 basis points lower to start the day with oil futures down another 4%.

There have been conflicting reports regarding the agreement to permanently open the Strait of Hormuz with no tolls/fees for passage, but oil futures are approaching pre-war levels, suggesting less concern from market participants at this point. On the data front, import price inflation exceeded expectations in May, including ex-petroleum imports (0.8% m/m vs. 0.5% expected). Housing starts were much softer than expected in May, due mainly to a 40% decline in the more volatile multifamily category. Single-family housing starts fell 1.9% last month following a 11.6% decline in April. 

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/16/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —25.500k29.000k     —
6/16/2026Import Price Index MoM1.00%1.90%1.90%2.00%
6/16/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.50%0.80%0.70%0.50%
6/16/2026Import Price Index YoY5.70%6.70%4.20%     —
6/16/2026Export Price Index MoM0.90%1.30%3.30%3.50%
6/16/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity     —-10.1-5.8     —
6/16/2026Export Price Index YoY10.20%11.20%8.80%9.10%
6/16/2026Housing Starts1430k1177k1465k1392k
6/16/2026Housing Starts MoM-2.00%-15.40%-2.80%-8.50%
6/16/2026Building Permits1418k1413k1423k     —
6/16/2026Building Permits MoM-0.90%-0.70%4.40%     —
6/17/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —10.80%     —
6/17/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.50%     —0.50%     —
6/17/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.60%     —0.70%     —
6/17/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%     —0.50%     —
6/17/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.40%     —0.50%     —
6/17/2026Business Inventories0.50%     —0.90%     —
6/17/2026Pending Home Sales MoM1.00%     —1.40%     —
6/17/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —3.30%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)3.75%     —3.75%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.50%     —3.50%     —
6/17/2026Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate3.65%     —3.65%     —
6/17/2026Fed Reverse Repo Rate3.50%     —3.50%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr3.63%     —3.38%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr3.38%     —3.13%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs3.13%     —3.13%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run3.13%     —3.13%     —
6/18/2026Initial Jobless Claims225k     —229k     —
6/18/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —219.00k     —
6/18/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook10     —-0.4     —
6/18/2026Continuing Claims1790k     —1795k     —
6/18/2026Leading Index0.10%     —0.10%     —
6/18/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$150.7b     —
6/18/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$81.3b     —
6/23/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —25.500k     —
6/23/2026Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-23.6     —
6/23/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —55.1     —
6/23/2026S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —50.7     —
6/23/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —51.5     —
6/23/2026Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —13     —
6/23/2026Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —0     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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