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Author Jason Haley

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Financial markets are reacting to news of a peace deal with Iran.

The deal reportedly includes an immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which is helping push oil futures down 5% this morning. S&P 500 futures are up more than 1.3% a little more than an hour before the open, and Treasury yields are down 1-4 basis points (curve steeper). Fed funds futures are still pricing greater than 50% odds of a rate hike by year-end, but the likely debate in the coming days/weeks is whether this deal gives Fed leaders room to simply stay on hold for the foreseeable future. We’ll get our first FOMC decision of the Kevin Warsh era on Wednesday. Beyond the FOMC meeting, there will be a May retail sales report released earlier that morning.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/15/2026Empire Manufacturing13.75.719.6     —
6/15/2026Industrial Production MoM0.30%     —0.70%     —
6/15/2026Manufacturing Production MoM0.30%     —0.60%     —
6/15/2026Capacity Utilization76.20%     —76.10%     —
6/15/2026NAHB Housing Market Index37     —37     —
6/16/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —29.000k     —
6/16/2026Import Price Index MoM1.00%     —1.90%     —
6/16/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.50%     —0.70%     —
6/16/2026Import Price Index YoY5.70%     —4.20%     —
6/16/2026Export Price Index MoM0.60%     —3.30%     —
6/16/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-5.8     —
6/16/2026Export Price Index YoY     —     —8.80%     —
6/16/2026Housing Starts1430k     —1465k     —
6/16/2026Housing Starts MoM-1.90%     —-2.80%     —
6/16/2026Building Permits1418k     —1423k     —
6/16/2026Building Permits MoM-0.90%     —4.40%     —
6/17/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —10.80%     —
6/17/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.50%     —0.50%     —
6/17/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.60%     —0.70%     —
6/17/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%     —0.50%     —
6/17/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.30%     —0.50%     —
6/17/2026Business Inventories0.50%     —0.90%     —
6/17/2026Pending Home Sales MoM1.00%     —1.40%     —
6/17/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —3.30%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)3.75%     —3.75%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.50%     —3.50%     —
6/17/2026Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate3.65%     —3.65%     —
6/17/2026Fed Reverse Repo Rate3.50%     —3.50%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr3.63%     —3.38%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr3.38%     —3.13%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs3.13%     —3.13%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run3.13%     —3.13%     —
6/18/2026Initial Jobless Claims225k     —229k     —
6/18/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —219.00k     —
6/18/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook10     —-0.4     —
6/18/2026Continuing Claims1790k     —1795k     —
6/18/2026Leading Index0.10%     —0.10%     —
6/18/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$150.7b     —
6/18/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$81.3b     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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