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Author Jason Haley

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It’s a quiet start to the day in financial markets ahead of Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as committee chairman.

While no action is expected regarding the fed funds target range, market participants will pay close attention to external communications, including the official statement, the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and, in particular, Warsh’s press conference. We haven’t really gotten a clear picture of Warsh’s views on the current economic and inflation landscape, which reporters will surely press him to provide. Reporters will also likely question Warsh on what material reforms he intends to pursue related to balance sheet size and external communication/guidance (he prefers less). Regarding the latter, there is some speculation that Warsh will choose not to participate in today’s updated SEP.

For this morning’s data releases, retail sales exceeded expectations in May, rising 0.9% m/m (0.6% expected). The control group, which excludes food, gas, building materials, and auto dealers (used in GDP calculation), rose 0.7% m/m versus an expected 0.4% monthly gain. The MBA mortgage applications index fell 3.8% last week, with both purchase and refinancing applications declining by a similar amount. The average 30-year conventional contract rate held steady at 6.60%.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/17/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —-3.80%10.80%     —
6/17/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.60%0.90%0.50%0.40%
6/17/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.60%0.80%0.70%     —
6/17/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%0.50%0.50%     —
6/17/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.40%0.70%0.50%     —
6/17/2026Business Inventories0.50%     —0.90%     —
6/17/2026Pending Home Sales MoM0.90%     —1.40%     —
6/17/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY2.00%     —3.30%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)3.75%     —3.75%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.50%     —3.50%     —
6/17/2026Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate3.65%     —3.65%     —
6/17/2026Fed Reverse Repo Rate3.50%     —3.50%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr3.63%     —3.38%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr3.38%     —3.13%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs3.13%     —3.13%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run3.13%     —3.13%     —
6/18/2026Initial Jobless Claims225k     —229k     —
6/18/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —219.00k     —
6/18/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook10     —-0.4     —
6/18/2026Continuing Claims1790k     —1795k     —
6/18/2026Leading Index0.10%     —0.10%     —
6/18/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$150.7b     —
6/18/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$81.3b     —
6/23/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —25.500k     —
6/23/2026Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-23.6     —
6/23/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —55.1     —
6/23/2026S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —50.7     —
6/23/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —51.5     —
6/23/2026Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —13     —
6/23/2026Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —0     —
6/24/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-3.80%     —
6/24/2026Current Account Balance     —     —-$190.7b     —
6/24/2026New Home Sales     —     —622k     —
6/24/2026New Home Sales MoM     —     —-6.20%     —
6/24/2026Building Permits     —     —1413k     —
6/24/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —-0.70%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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