Site Search

Looking for something? Use the search bar below or visit our Resources page.


Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Kevin Warsh did not tiptoe into his first FOMC meeting as Fed Chairman.

It was widely known that he favored material reforms at the central bank, including how the Fed communicates to the outside world and how it uses the balance sheet as a policy tool. The question was how quickly he would begin working on these initiatives, and the answer is immediately. Yesterday’s official statement was fully recrafted into a much shorter version with no forward guidance, and Warsh’s press conference performance maintained this theme of very limited guidance. Instead, Warsh repeatedly pointed back to the official statement when pressed by reporters for thoughts on the economy and policy. As some speculated, he also chose not to participate in the FOMC’s economic and fed funds forecasts. Regarding reform efforts, Warsh announced five task forces that will focus on communications, balance sheet, data sources, productivity & jobs, and the Fed’s inflation framework. These task forces will be comprised of both internal Fed leaders/staff and external experts, and he suggested the goal is to have conclusions reached by year-end.

The official statement and Warsh’s press conference were clear and emphatic regarding the Fed’s current objective. The statement ended by noting that inflation remains above target and that “the Committee will deliver price stability.” Additionally, the updated fed funds forecasts from FOMC participants now show one rate hike in 2026, and five participants forecasted two rate hikes this year. The bond market reacted accordingly to this hawkish tone, with front-end yields rising 10-13 basis points. Fed funds futures are now priced for roughly 1.5 rate hikes in 2026.  Equity markets are poised to rebound this morning following yesterday’s selloff, and Treasury yields are 5-7 basis points lower on the long end of the curve (front-end little changed).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/18/2026Initial Jobless Claims225k226k229k230k
6/18/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —223.25k219.00k219.25k
6/18/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook1010.3-0.4     —
6/18/2026Continuing Claims1789k1810k1795k1786k
6/18/2026Leading Index0.10%     —0.10%     —
6/18/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$150.7b     —
6/18/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$81.3b     —
6/23/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —25.500k     —
6/23/2026Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-23.6     —
6/23/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI54.8     —55.1     —
6/23/2026S&P Global US Services PMI51.2     —50.7     —
6/23/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —51.5     —
6/23/2026Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —13     —
6/23/2026Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —0     —
6/24/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-3.80%     —
6/24/2026Current Account Balance-$241.0b     —-$190.7b     —
6/24/2026New Home Sales640k     —622k     —
6/24/2026New Home Sales MoM     —     —-6.20%     —
6/24/2026Building Permits     —     —1413k     —
6/24/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —-0.70%     —
6/25/2026Personal Income0.40%     —0.00%     —
6/25/2026Personal Spending0.50%     —0.50%     —
6/25/2026Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index     —     —0.14     —
6/25/2026Real Personal Spending     —     —0.10%     —
6/25/2026PCE Price Index MoM0.50%     —0.40%     —
6/25/2026PCE Price Index YoY4.10%     —3.80%     —
6/25/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
6/25/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY3.40%     —3.30%     —
6/25/2026Durable Goods Orders-6.00%     —8.00%     —
6/25/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —226k     —
6/25/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.20%     —1.10%     —
6/25/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —223.25k     —
6/25/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.80%     —-1.00%     —
6/25/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1810k     —
6/25/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.40%     —
6/25/2026GDP Annualized QoQ1.60%     —1.60%     —
6/25/2026Personal Consumption     —     —1.40%     —
6/25/2026GDP Price Index3.50%     —3.50%     —
6/25/2026Core PCE Price Index QoQ4.40%     —4.40%     —
6/25/2026Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity     —     —8     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

  Headline Disclaimer

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.

Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.

Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.



Recent Beyond The Headlines


  Headlines RSS
Strategic Partners

Let’s Work Together

ALM First is your agile partner with a trusted history of delivering results.