Financial markets are relatively calm to start the day despite reports of the US and Iran trading airstrikes.
Oil prices are only modestly higher, and Treasuries are recovering some of yesterday’s losses (front end yields -2-3 bps). Equity futures are pointing to a higher open for US stocks. Later this morning, initial jobless claims are expected to come in at 217,000, essentially unchanged from the prior week. Two Fed leaders (Williams and Logan) are scheduled to speak at separate events today.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 7/9/2026 | Initial Jobless Claims | 217k | 215k | 215k | 217k |
| 7/9/2026 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | 218.75k | 222.00k | 222.50k |
| 7/9/2026 | Continuing Claims | 1814k | 1814k | 1814k | 1806k |
| 7/9/2026 | Existing Home Sales | 4.20m | — | 4.17m | — |
| 7/9/2026 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 1.00% | — | 3.20% | — |
| 7/13/2026 | Federal Budget Balance | — | — | -$292.6b | — |
| 7/14/2026 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 95.5 | — | 95.3 | — |
| 7/14/2026 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | — | — | 21.000k | — |
| 7/14/2026 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | -0.40% | -0.50% |
| 7/14/2026 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | -0.70% | -0.80% |
| 7/14/2026 | CPI MoM | -0.10% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 7/14/2026 | Core CPI MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 7/14/2026 | CPI YoY | 3.90% | — | 4.20% | — |
| 7/14/2026 | Core CPI YoY | 2.90% | — | 2.90% | — |
| 7/14/2026 | CPI Index NSA | 334.8 | — | 335.12 | — |
| 7/14/2026 | Core CPI Index SA | 336.97 | — | 336.12 | — |
| 7/14/2026 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $26.1b | — |
| 7/14/2026 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $103.1b | — |
| 7/15/2026 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -2.20% | — |
| 7/15/2026 | Empire Manufacturing | 10 | — | 5.7 | — |
| 7/15/2026 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.00% | — | 1.10% | — |
| 7/15/2026 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 7/15/2026 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 7/15/2026 | PPI Final Demand YoY | — | — | 6.50% | — |
| 7/15/2026 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | — | — | 4.90% | — |
| 7/15/2026 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 5.10% | — |
| 7/15/2026 | Fed Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 7/16/2026 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | -10.1 | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 15 | — | 10.3 | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 215k | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | -0.10% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 218.75k | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1814k | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 7/16/2026 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | — | 35 | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Business Inventories | — | — | 0.50% | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Pending Home Sales MoM | — | — | 3.80% | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | 2.10% | — |