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Author Kirby Hart

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Treasury yields are slightly weaker this morning as oil continues its advance higher on news from the Middle East.

The Iran ceasefire has broken down. Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran over at the NATO summit in Ankara, following what the US called a series of powerful strikes against Iran on Tuesday in retaliation for attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. US futures are broadly lower on this news amid a flight from risk.

In other news in the debt market, Amazon priced a surprising $25 billion 8-tranche senior unsecured debt deal yesterday. They had already priced the biggest deal of the year in March ($37 billion). IG credit markets took this as a sign of worry in AI and hyperscaler names. Those names traded well wide of their levels following the announcement (+8-12 bps for hyperscalers).

Kirby Hart
Director

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
7/8/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —-2.20%0.00%     —
7/8/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM0.30%     —0.30%     —
7/8/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.80%     —2.00%     —
7/8/2026FOMC Meeting Minutes     —     —     —0
7/8/2026Consumer Credit$17.500b     —$20.733b     —
7/9/2026Initial Jobless Claims218k     —215k     —
7/9/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —222.00k     —
7/9/2026Continuing Claims1815k     —1814k     —
7/9/2026Existing Home Sales4.20m     —4.17m     —
7/9/2026Existing Home Sales MoM1.00%     —3.20%     —
7/13/2026Federal Budget Balance     —     —-$292.6b     —
7/14/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism95.5     —95.3     —
7/14/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —21.000k     —
7/14/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —-0.40%-0.50%
7/14/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —-0.70%-0.80%
7/14/2026CPI MoM-0.10%     —0.50%     —
7/14/2026Core CPI MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
7/14/2026CPI YoY3.90%     —4.20%     —
7/14/2026Core CPI YoY2.90%     —2.90%     —
7/14/2026CPI Index NSA334.8     —335.12     —
7/14/2026Core CPI Index SA336.97     —336.12     —
7/14/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$26.1b     —
7/14/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$103.1b     —
7/15/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-2.20%     —
7/15/2026Empire Manufacturing10     —5.7     —
7/15/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.00%     —1.10%     —
7/15/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.40%     —0.40%     —
7/15/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.40%     —0.80%     —
7/15/2026PPI Final Demand YoY     —     —6.50%     —
7/15/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY     —     —4.90%     —
7/15/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —5.10%     —
7/15/2026Fed Releases Beige Book    

Kirby Hart

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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