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Author Kirby Hart

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are unchanged at the start of the morning as markets wait for Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech today at 10 am ET.

Investors seem reluctant to move in any one direction until Warsh addresses taming inflation and the Treasury Department’s intervention in the bond market. Most will want to get a better idea of the framework the Fed is now using to assess the economy. S&P 500 futures point to a slightly positive open, which puts the index on track to close with a weekly gain.

Kirby Hart
Director

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
8/28/2026MNI Chicago PMI57.9     —57.6     —
8/28/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment51     —51     —
8/28/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions52     —51.8     —
8/28/2026U. of Mich. Expectations51.4     —50.6     —
8/28/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.40%     —4.30%     —
8/28/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.30%     —3.30%     —
8/28/2026Prelim. Benchmark Payrolls Revision183k     —-911k     —
8/28/2026Kansas City Fed Services Activity10     —14     —
8/31/2026Dallas Fed Manf. Activity1.6     —1.3     —
9/1/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —53.2     —
9/1/2026ISM Manufacturing55.2     —55.6     —
9/1/2026ISM Prices Paid72     —71.1     —
9/1/2026ISM New Orders57     —56.7     —
9/1/2026ISM Employment52.5     —52.8     —
9/1/2026Construction Spending MoM0.20%     —-0.10%     —
9/1/2026JOLTS Job Openings7380k     —7359k     —
9/1/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.40%     —
9/1/2026JOLTS Quits Level     —     —3232k     —
9/1/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.00%     —
9/1/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level1785k     —1766k     —
9/1/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.10%     —
9/1/2026Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —6.6     —
9/01/2026Omdia Total Vehicle Sales16.28m     —16.33m     —
9/2/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-1.00%     —
9/2/2026ADP Employment Change48k     —44k     —
9/2/2026Factory Orders0.60%     —-0.30%     —
9/2/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —-0.40%     —
9/2/2026Durable Goods Orders0.50%     —1.10%     —
9/2/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —0.40%     —
9/2/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.20%     —
9/2/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —1.40%     —
9/3/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —-46.10%     —
9/3/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —     —33429     —
9/3/2026Trade Balance-$74.5b     —-$73.3b     —
9/3/2026Imports MoM     —     —-1.80%     —
9/3/2026Exports MoM     —     —-0.90%     —
9/3/2026Nonfarm Productivity1.40%     —1.40%     —
9/3/2026Unit Labor Costs1.30%     —1.30%     —
9/3/2026Initial Jobless Claims205k     —203k     —
9/3/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —205.50k     —
9/3/2026Continuing Claims1795k     —1778k     —
9/3/2026S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —56.8     —
9/3/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —56     —
9/3/2026ISM Services Index54.3     —54.1     —
9/3/2026ISM Services Prices Paid70     —70.3     —
9/3/2026ISM Services New Orders57     —57.2     —
9/3/2026ISM Services Employment49     —47.4     —
9/4/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls55k     —-23k     —
9/4/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-103k     —
9/4/2026Change in Private Payrolls50k     —30k     —
9/4/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls5k     —5k     —
9/4/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —20k     —
9/4/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.10%     —
9/4/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.00%     —3.20%     —
9/4/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.3     —
9/4/2026Unemployment Rate4.10%     —4.10%     —
9/4/2026Labor Force Participation Rate61.40%     —61.40%     —
9/4/2026Underemployment Rate     —     —7.90%     —

Kirby Hart

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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