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Author Conrad Lofton

Published

Estimated

The Treasury curve is steepening this morning with short rates essentially flat and the long end of the curve up 2-4 basis points.

Equity futures are lower on the final trading day of the month with renewed concerns regarding the hostilities in the Middle East. Fed Fund futures show around a 65% chance of a Fed hike post Warsh’s comments at the Jackson Hole event.

Conrad Lofton
Director

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
8/31/2026Dallas Fed Manf. Activity1.6     —1.3
9/1/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI53.3     —53.2
9/1/2026ISM Manufacturing55.2     —55.6
9/1/2026ISM Prices Paid70.5     —71.1
9/1/2026ISM New Orders57     —56.7
9/1/2026ISM Employment52.5     —52.8
9/1/2026Construction Spending MoM0.00%     —-0.10%
9/1/2026JOLTS Job Openings7313k     —7359k
9/1/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.40%
9/1/2026JOLTS Quits Level3208k     —3232k
9/1/2026JOLTS Quits Rate2.00%     —2.00%
9/1/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level1768k     —1766k
9/1/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate1.10%     —1.10%
9/1/2026Dallas Fed Services Activity8     —6.6
9/01/2026Omdia Total Vehicle Sales16.30m     —16.33m
9/2/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-1.00%
9/2/2026ADP Employment Change47k     —44k
9/2/2026Factory Orders0.70%     —-0.30%
9/2/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans0.40%     —-0.40%
9/2/2026Durable Goods Orders1.10%     —1.10%
9/2/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.40%     —0.40%
9/2/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.20%     —0.20%
9/2/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air1.40%     —1.40%
9/3/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —-46.10%
9/3/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —     —33429
9/3/2026Trade Balance-$90.1b     —-$73.3b
9/3/2026Imports MoM1.40%     —-1.80%
9/3/2026Exports MoM-0.80%     —-0.90%
9/3/2026Nonfarm Productivity1.40%     —1.40%
9/3/2026Unit Labor Costs1.30%     —1.30%
9/3/2026Initial Jobless Claims205k     —203k
9/3/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —205.50k
9/3/2026Continuing Claims1785k     —1778k
9/3/2026S&P Global US Services PMI56.8     —56.8
9/3/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —56
9/3/2026ISM Services Index54.1     —54.1
9/3/2026ISM Services Prices Paid70     —70.3
9/3/2026ISM Services New Orders56.5     —57.2
9/3/2026ISM Services Employment49.5     —47.4
9/4/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls55k     —-23k
9/4/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-103k
9/4/2026Change in Private Payrolls50k     —30k
9/4/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls5k     —5k
9/4/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —20k
9/4/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.10%
9/4/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.00%     —3.20%
9/4/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.3
9/4/2026Unemployment Rate4.10%     —4.10%
9/4/2026Labor Force Participation Rate61.40%     —61.40%
9/4/2026Underemployment Rate     —     —7.90%

Conrad Lofton

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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