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Author Jason Haley

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An increase in jobless claims and lower than expected growth in unit labor costs in Q4 are fueling a modest rally in Treasuries this morning.

Initial jobless claims were 224,000 last week, up from 215,000 the prior week (212k expected). Yesterday’s FOMC meeting closed the door on those still expecting a rate cut in March, but the official statement moved further to a more balanced/neutral position. It effectively squashed the likelihood of any additional rate hikes, but at the same time, the Fed’s communication (including Powell press conference) made clear that they would like to have greater confidence that the recent improvement in inflation readings is sustainable before initiating rate cuts.

The official statement also removed any reference to risks to the economy from stresses in the banking system, implying that the fallout from the SVB collapse is over from their perspective. This was ironic considering that fresh concerns emerged yesterday in the small/regional bank space following the earnings call of New York Community Bancorp. It wasn’t until the end of the press conference that Powell was asked about plans for balance sheet reduction. He answered that there will likely be a discussion at the March meeting as to what parameters should be tracked to decide the right size of the Fed’s balance sheet going forward, which was telegraphed in the minutes of the December meeting. This is simply the first step in any discussion of potentially altering the current pace of quantitative tightening.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/1/2024Challenger Job Cuts YoY—-20.00%-20.20%—
2/1/2024Nonfarm Productivity2.50%3.20%5.20%4.90%
2/1/2024Unit Labor Costs1.20%0.50%-1.20%-1.10%
2/1/2024Initial Jobless Claims212k224k214k215k
2/1/2024Continuing Claims1839k1898k1833k1828k
2/1/2024S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI50.3—50.3—
2/1/2024Construction Spending MoM0.50%—0.40%—
2/1/2024ISM Manufacturing47.2—47.4—
2/1/2024ISM Prices Paid46.9—45.2—
2/1/2024ISM New Orders48.2—47.1—
2/1/2024ISM Employment47—48.1—
2/1/2024Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.70m—15.83m—
2/2/2024Revisions: Establishment Survey Data
2/2/2024Two-Month Payroll Net Revision————
2/2/2024Change in Nonfarm Payrolls185k—216k—
2/2/2024Change in Private Payrolls168k—164k—
2/2/2024Change in Manufact. Payrolls3k—6k—
2/2/2024Unemployment Rate3.80%—3.70%—
2/2/2024Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%—0.40%—
2/2/2024Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.10%—4.10%—
2/2/2024Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3—34.3—
2/2/2024Labor Force Participation Rate62.60%—62.50%—
2/2/2024Underemployment Rate——7.10%—
2/2/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment79—78.8—
2/2/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions83.5—83.3—
2/2/2024U. of Mich. Expectations76—75.9—
2/2/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.90%—2.90%—
2/2/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.80%—2.80%—
2/2/2024Factory Orders0.20%—2.60%—
2/2/2024Factory Orders Ex Trans0.20%—0.10%—
2/2/2024Durable Goods Orders0.00%—0.00%—
2/2/2024Durables Ex Transportation0.60%—0.60%—
2/2/2024Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air——0.30%—
2/2/2024Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air——0.10%—
2/5/2024S&P Global US Services PMI——52.9—
2/5/2024S&P Global US Composite PMI——52.3—
2/5/2024ISM Services Index52.2—50.6—
2/5/2024ISM Services Prices Paid——57.4—
2/5/2024ISM Services New Orders——52.8—
2/5/2024ISM Services Employment——43.3—
2/5/2024Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices
2/7/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——-7.20%—
2/7/2024Trade Balance-$62.3b—-$63.2b—
2/7/2024Consumer Credit$16.500b—$23.751b—
2/8/2024Initial Jobless Claims——224k—
2/8/2024Continuing Claims——1898k—
2/8/2024Wholesale Trade Sales MoM——0.00%—
2/8/2024Wholesale Inventories MoM——0.40%—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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