Treasuries yields on the front-end and belly of the curve are 2 to 3 bps lower this morning following softer than expected jobs data.
The ADP Employment Change index showed US companies added 107,000 jobs in January, fewer than the median forecast of 150,000 jobs. Later today the FOMC will announce its interest rate decision (no change is expected), tomorrow we’ll get initial jobless claims data, and on Friday we’ll get the change in nonfarm payrolls which is expected to show an increase of 185,000.
Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 01/31/24 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -7.20% | 3.70% | — |
| 01/31/24 | ADP Employment Change | 150k | 107k | 164k | 158k |
| 01/31/24 | Employment Cost Index | 1.00% | 0.90% | 1.10% | — |
| 01/31/24 | MNI Chicago PMI | 48 | — | 46.9 | 47.2 |
| 01/31/24 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 5.50% | — | 5.50% | — |
| 01/31/24 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 5.25% | — | 5.25% | — |
| 01/31/24 | Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | 5.40% | — | 5.40% | — |
| 02/01/24 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | -20.20% | — |
| 02/01/24 | Nonfarm Productivity | 2.50% | — | 5.20% | — |
| 02/01/24 | Unit Labor Costs | 1.20% | — | -1.20% | — |
| 02/01/24 | Initial Jobless Claims | 212k | — | 214k | — |
| 02/01/24 | Continuing Claims | 1839k | — | 1833k | — |
| 02/01/24 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 50.3 | — | 50.3 | — |
| 02/01/24 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 02/01/24 | ISM Manufacturing | 47.2 | — | 47.4 | — |
| 02/01/24 | ISM Prices Paid | 46 | — | 45.2 | — |
| 02/01/24 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 47.1 | — |
| 02/01/24 | ISM Employment | — | — | 48.1 | — |
| 02/01/24 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 15.70m | — | 15.83m | — |
| 02/02/24 | Revisions: Establishment Survey Data | ||||
| 02/02/24 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | — | — |
| 02/02/24 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 185k | — | 216k | — |
| 02/02/24 | Change in Private Payrolls | 165k | — | 164k | — |
| 02/02/24 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 3k | — | 6k | — |
| 02/02/24 | Unemployment Rate | 3.80% | — | 3.70% | — |
| 02/02/24 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 02/02/24 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.10% | — | 4.10% | — |
| 02/02/24 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.3 | — | 34.3 | — |
| 02/02/24 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.60% | — | 62.50% | — |
| 02/02/24 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.10% | — |
| 02/02/24 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 78.9 | — | 78.8 | — |
| 02/02/24 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 83.3 | — |
| 02/02/24 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 75.9 | — |
| 02/02/24 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 2.90% | — | 2.90% | — |
| 02/02/24 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 2.80% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 02/02/24 | Factory Orders | 0.20% | — | 2.60% | — |
| 02/02/24 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 02/02/24 | Durable Goods Orders | 0.00% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 02/02/24 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.60% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 02/02/24 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 02/02/24 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.10% | — |
