Site Search

Looking for something? Use the search bar below or visit our Resources page.


Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are down 2-3 basis points across the curve amid concerns about geopolitical tensions.

Reports surfaced overnight that some U.S. personnel were ordered to leave a Middle East military base, fueling speculation that an attack on Iran could be in the works. Separately, President Trump posted earlier this morning that “the United States needs Greenland for the purposes of National Security.”  Beyond geopolitical headlines, the Supreme Court is expected to release its ruling this morning on the legality of tariffs under the Emergency Powers Act.

On the data front, the MBA mortgage activity index surged 28.2% last week, driven by a 16% increase in new purchase applications and a 40% increase in refinance applications. The surge in application activity was accompanied by a 7-basis-point decline in the average 30-year conventional contract rate to 6.18%, the lowest since September 2024. The average 5-year ARM rate plunged 48 basis points versus the prior week to 5.42%, the second-lowest level since May 2023.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
1/14/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —28.50%0.30%
1/14/2026BLS to Release Oct. and Nov. PPI on Jan. 14   
1/14/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%0.20%     —
1/14/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.00%     —
1/14/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.20%     —
1/14/2026PPI Final Demand YoY2.70%3.00%     —
1/14/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.70%3.00%     —
1/14/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.90%3.50%     —
1/14/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.50%0.60%0.00%
1/14/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%0.50%0.40%
1/14/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%0.40%0.50%
1/14/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.40%0.40%0.80%
1/14/2026Current Account Balance-$238.0b-$226.4b-$251.3b
1/14/2026Existing Home Sales4.22m     —4.13m
1/14/2026Existing Home Sales MoM2.20%     —0.50%
1/14/2026Business Inventories0.10%     —0.20%
1/15/2026Empire Manufacturing1     —-3.9
1/15/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook-1     —-10.2
1/15/2026Initial Jobless Claims215k     —208k
1/15/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —211.75k
1/15/2026Continuing Claims1899k     —1914k
1/15/2026BLS Releases Limited Oct. Import-Export Series with Nov. Data   
1/15/2026Import Price Index MoM-0.20%     —     —
1/15/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.00%     —     —
1/15/2026Import Price Index YoY-0.10%     —     —
1/15/2026Export Price Index MoM0.00%     —     —
1/15/2026Export Price Index YoY     —     —     —
1/15/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —-$37.3b
1/15/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$17.5b
1/16/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-20
1/16/2026Industrial Production MoM0.10%     —0.20%
1/16/2026Manufacturing (SIC) Production-0.10%     —0.00%
1/16/2026Capacity Utilization76.00%     —76.00%
1/16/2026NAHB Housing Market Index40     —39
1/20/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —11.750k
1/20/2026Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-16.8
1/20/2026-1/30/2026New Home Sales     —     —737k
1/20/2026-1/31/2026New Home Sales MoM     —     —-0.10%
1/20/2026-1/30/2026Housing Starts     —     —1246k
1/20/2026-1/30/2026Housing Starts MoM     —     —-4.60%
1/21/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —28.50%
1/21/2026Building Permits     —     —1411k
1/21/2026Census Releases Sept.-Oct. Construction Spending on Jan. 21   
1/21/2026Leading Index     —     —-0.30%
1/21/2026Construction Spending MoM0.10%     —     —
1/21/2026Pending Home Sales MoM     —     —3.30%
1/21/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —-0.30%

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

  Headline Disclaimer

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.

Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.

Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.



Recent Beyond The Headlines


  Headlines RSS
Strategic Partners

Let’s Work Together

ALM First is your agile partner with a trusted history of delivering results.