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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are drifting modestly higher and steeper in quiet trading heading into the holiday weekend.

There are no major economic releases today, but we will hear from a few different Fed leaders, including Governor Michelle Bowman. There will be no early close in the bond market today ahead of Monday’s MLK holiday, but liquidity should weaken as the day progresses. Looking ahead to next week, the Fed will be in the blackout period ahead of the January 28 meeting, and on the data front, we’ll get another round of weekly jobless claims data as well as the November personal income and spending data.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
1/16/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity     —-16.1-20
1/16/2026Industrial Production MoM0.10%     —0.20%
1/16/2026Manufacturing (SIC) Production-0.10%     —0.00%
1/16/2026Capacity Utilization76.00%     —76.00%
1/16/2026NAHB Housing Market Index40     —39
1/20/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —11.750k
1/20/2026Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-16.8
1/21/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —28.50%
1/21/2026Census Releases Sept.-Oct. Construction Spending on Jan. 21   
1/21/2026Leading Index     —     —-0.30%
1/21/2026Construction Spending MoM0.10%     —     —
1/21/2026Pending Home Sales MoM     —     —3.30%
1/21/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —-0.30%
1/22/2026BEA to Release Oct.-Nov. Personal Income on Jan. 22   
1/22/2026GDP Annualized QoQ4.30%     —4.30%
1/22/2026Personal Consumption     —     —3.50%
1/22/2026GDP Price Index     —     —3.80%
1/22/2026Core PCE Price Index QoQ     —     —2.90%
1/22/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —198k
1/22/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —205.00k
1/22/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1884k
1/22/2026Personal Income0.40%     —     —
1/22/2026Personal Spending0.50%     —     —
1/22/2026Real Personal Spending     —     —     —
1/22/2026PCE Price Index MoM0.20%     —     —
1/22/2026PCE Price Index YoY2.70%     —     —
1/22/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM0.20%     —     —
1/22/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY2.80%     —     —
1/22/2026Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity     —     —1
1/23/2026Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey   
1/23/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI52     —51.8
1/23/2026S&P Global US Services PMI52.8     —52.5
1/23/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —52.7
1/23/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment54     —54
1/23/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —52.4
1/23/2026U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —55
1/23/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.20%
1/23/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation     —     —3.40%
1/23/2026Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —3

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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