Treasuries have changed a little after a quiet overnight session.
President Trump continued with threats of fresh tariffs yesterday, saying they are considering a 10% levy on all Chinese imports a day after suggesting 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada on Monday. Markets are less reactive to the rhetoric so far given that tariffs are just “discussions” as opposed to the threats of immediate action during the campaign. On the data front, the MBA mortgage applications index rose a tepid 0.1% last week, including a 2.9% decline in refinance applications and a 0.6% increase in purchase applications. The average conventional 30-year contract rate fell 7 basis points to 7.02% according to the survey. For added perspective, the MBA refi applications index is currently just 25% of the 20-year average, while the purchase application index is at 65% over the same period.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 1/22/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 0.10% | 33.30% | — |
| 1/22/2025 | Leading Index | -0.10% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 1/23/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 220k | — | 217k | — |
| 1/23/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1866k | — | 1859k | — |
| 1/23/2025 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 0 | — | -4 | — |
| 1/24/2025 | Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 1/24/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 49.8 | — | 49.4 | — |
| 1/24/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 56.5 | — | 56.8 | — |
| 1/24/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 55.4 | — |
| 1/24/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 73.2 | — | 73.2 | — |
| 1/24/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 77.9 | — |
| 1/24/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 70.2 | — |
| 1/24/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 3.20% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 1/24/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.20% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 1/24/2025 | Existing Home Sales | 4.20m | — | 4.15m | — |
| 1/24/2025 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 1.20% | — | 4.80% | — |
| 1/24/2025 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 2 | — |
| 1/27/2025 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | — | — | -0.12 | — |
| 1/27/2025 | New Home Sales | 670k | — | 664k | — |
| 1/27/2025 | New Home Sales MoM | 6.60% | — | 5.90% | — |
| 1/27/2025 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | 3.4 | — |
| 1/27/2025 | Building Permits | — | — | 1483k | — |
| 1/27/2025 | Building Permits MoM | — | — | -0.70% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | 0.50% | — | -1.20% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.30% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | — | — | 0.32% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | — | — | 4.22% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 3.60% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | 9.6 | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 106 | — | 104.7 | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 140.2 | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 81.1 | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | — | — | -10 | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | 14 | — |
| 1/29/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 1/29/2025 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$105.8b | — | -$102.9b | — |
| 1/29/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | -0.20% | — |
| 1/29/2025 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 1/29/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 4.50% | — | 4.50% | — |
| 1/29/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | — | — | 4.25% | — |
| 1/29/2025 | Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | — | — | 4.40% | — |
