The Treasury curve is modestly steeper this morning pivoted around the 5-year note.
It was another relatively quiet overnight session, with no major overseas data releases or financial headlines. Initial jobless claims edged up slightly last week to 223,000 from 217,000 the prior week. Weather and natural disasters will likely inject noise into this series over the next month. The preliminary January PMI data will be released tomorrow for Europe and the U.S.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 1/23/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 220k | 223k | 217k | — |
| 1/23/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1866k | 1899k | 1859k | 1853k |
| 1/23/2025 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 0 | — | -4 | — |
| 1/24/2025 | Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 1/24/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 49.8 | — | 49.4 | — |
| 1/24/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 56.5 | — | 56.8 | — |
| 1/24/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 55.6 | — | 55.4 | — |
| 1/24/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 73.2 | — | 73.2 | — |
| 1/24/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 77.9 | — |
| 1/24/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 70.2 | — |
| 1/24/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 3.20% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 1/24/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.20% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 1/24/2025 | Existing Home Sales | 4.20m | — | 4.15m | — |
| 1/24/2025 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 1.20% | — | 4.80% | — |
| 1/24/2025 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 2 | — |
| 1/27/2025 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | — | — | -0.12 | — |
| 1/27/2025 | New Home Sales | 670k | — | 664k | — |
| 1/27/2025 | New Home Sales MoM | 6.60% | — | 5.90% | — |
| 1/27/2025 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | 3.4 | — |
| 1/27/2025 | Building Permits | — | — | 1483k | — |
| 1/27/2025 | Building Permits MoM | — | — | -0.70% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | 0.50% | — | -1.20% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.30% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | — | — | 0.32% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | — | — | 4.22% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 3.60% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | 9.6 | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 106 | — | 104.7 | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 140.2 | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 81.1 | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | — | — | -10 | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | 14 | — |
| 1/29/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 1/29/2025 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$105.8b | — | -$102.9b | — |
| 1/29/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | -0.20% | — |
| 1/29/2025 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 1/29/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 4.50% | — | 4.50% | — |
| 1/29/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | — | — | 4.25% | — |
| 1/29/2025 | Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | — | — | 4.40% | — |
| 1/30/2025 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.60% | — | 3.10% | — |
| 1/30/2025 | Personal Consumption | — | — | 3.70% | — |
| 1/30/2025 | GDP Price Index | — | — | 1.90% | — |
| 1/30/2025 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | — | — | 2.20% | — |
| 1/30/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 223k | — |
| 1/30/2025 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1899k | — |
| 1/30/2025 | Pending Home Sales MoM | — | — | 2.20% | — |
| 1/30/2025 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | 5.60% | — |
