Treasury yields are modestly higher and steeper to start the day, following the price action of European bonds overnight.
The latter was driven more by supply pressures than any economic releases, and perceived hawkish comments from the head of the Bank of Japan were also supportive of a sell off. An Axios article late yesterday highlights the longer than expected lag in falling rent inflation within the CPI report, which accounts for approximately 40% of the core measure. The lag is typically around 12 months versus private market data and was expected to fall in the second half of 2023 in line with actual rent data, but the CPI metric remained stickier than expected. This should catch up this year and help cool core CPI growth, something Fed leaders have been expecting for much of the last year.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 1/23/2024 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | -3.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 |
| 1/23/2024 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | -8 | — | -11 | — |
| 1/23/2024 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | 0 | — |
| 1/24/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 10.40% | — |
| 1/24/2024 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 47.6 | — | 47.9 | — |
| 1/24/2024 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 51.5 | — | 51.4 | — |
| 1/24/2024 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 51 | — | 50.9 | — |
| 1/25/2024 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.06 | — | 0.03 | — |
| 1/25/2024 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.00% | — | 4.90% | — |
| 1/25/2024 | Personal Consumption | 2.50% | — | 3.10% | — |
| 1/25/2024 | GDP Price Index | 2.20% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 1/25/2024 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | 2.00% | — | 2.00% | — |
| 1/25/2024 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$88.7b | — | -$90.3b | -$89.3b |
| 1/25/2024 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.00% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 1/25/2024 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -0.20% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 1/25/2024 | Durable Goods Orders | 1.50% | — | 5.40% | — |
| 1/25/2024 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.20% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 1/25/2024 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.10% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 1/25/2024 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.00% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 1/25/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | 200k | — | 187k | — |
| 1/25/2024 | Continuing Claims | 1820k | — | 1806k | — |
| 1/25/2024 | New Home Sales MoM | 10.00% | — | -12.20% | — |
| 1/25/2024 | New Home Sales | 649k | — | 590k | — |
| 1/25/2024 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | -1 | — |
| 1/26/2024 | Personal Income | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 1/26/2024 | Personal Spending | 0.50% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 1/26/2024 | Real Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 1/26/2024 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 1/26/2024 | PCE Deflator YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.60% | — |
| 1/26/2024 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 1/26/2024 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 3.00% | — | 3.20% | — |
| 1/26/2024 | Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 1/26/2024 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 2.00% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 1/26/2024 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | -4.30% | — | -5.10% | — |
| 1/26/2024 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | -10 | — |
| 1/29/2024 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | -9.3 | — |
| 1/30/2024 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 1/30/2024 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | — | — | 0.64% | — |
| 1/30/2024 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | — | — | 4.87% | — |
| 1/30/2024 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 4.77% | — |
| 1/30/2024 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 111.6 | — | 110.7 | — |
| 1/30/2024 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 148.5 | — |
| 1/30/2024 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 85.6 | — |
| 1/30/2024 | JOLTS Job Openings | — | — | 8790k | — |
| 1/30/2024 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | -8.7 | — |
