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Author Jason Haley

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Weaker-than-expected PMI data out of Europe is fueling a 2-3 basis point rally in Treasuries this morning.

Additionally, China announced a 50-basis point cut it its bank reserve ratio requirement in an effort to further stimulate its struggling economy. S&P 500 futures are up 0.6% ahead of the open with the tech sector outperforming amid better-than-expected earnings releases. On the data front, the MBA mortgage applications index rose 3.7% last week, including a 7.5% increase in purchase applications. This brought the purchase index to the highest level since last April as the average 30-year contract rate held below 7% for the sixth consecutive week according to the MBA survey. Tomorrow we will get the first estimate of Q4 GDP growth, which is expected to come in at 2% q/q (annualized) according to Bloomberg consensus estimates.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
1/24/2024MBA Mortgage Applications19-Jan—3.70%10.40%—
1/24/2024S&P Global US Manufacturing PMIJan P47.6—47.9—
1/24/2024S&P Global US Services PMIJan P51.5—51.4—
1/24/2024S&P Global US Composite PMIJan P51—50.9—
1/25/2024Chicago Fed Nat Activity IndexDec0.06—0.03—
1/25/2024GDP Annualized QoQ4Q A2.00%—4.90%—
1/25/2024Personal Consumption4Q A2.50%—3.10%—
1/25/2024GDP Price Index4Q A2.20%—3.30%—
1/25/2024Core PCE Price Index QoQ4Q A2.00%—2.00%—
1/25/2024Advance Goods Trade BalanceDec-$88.7b—-$90.3b-$89.3b
1/25/2024Retail Inventories MoMDec0.00%—-0.10%—
1/25/2024Wholesale Inventories MoMDec P-0.20%—-0.20%—
1/25/2024Durable Goods OrdersDec P1.50%—5.40%—
1/25/2024Durables Ex TransportationDec P0.20%—0.40%—
1/25/2024Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex AirDec P0.10%—0.80%—
1/25/2024Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex AirDec P0.00%—-0.20%—
1/25/2024Initial Jobless Claims20-Jan200k—187k—
1/25/2024Continuing Claims13-Jan1820k—1806k—
1/25/2024New Home Sales MoMDec10.00%—-12.20%—
1/25/2024New Home SalesDec649k—590k—
1/25/2024Kansas City Fed Manf. ActivityJan-3—-1—
1/26/2024Personal IncomeDec0.30%—0.40%—
1/26/2024Personal SpendingDec0.50%—0.20%—
1/26/2024Real Personal SpendingDec0.30%—0.30%—
1/26/2024PCE Deflator MoMDec0.20%—-0.10%—
1/26/2024PCE Deflator YoYDec2.60%—2.60%—
1/26/2024PCE Core Deflator MoMDec0.20%—0.10%—
1/26/2024PCE Core Deflator YoYDec3.00%—3.20%—
1/26/2024Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey
1/26/2024Pending Home Sales MoMDec2.00%—0.00%—
1/26/2024Pending Home Sales NSA YoYDec-4.30%—-5.10%—
1/26/2024Kansas City Fed Services ActivityJan——-10—
1/29/2024Dallas Fed Manf. ActivityJan——-9.3—
1/30/2024FHFA House Price Index MoMNov——0.30%—
1/30/2024S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SANov——0.64%—
1/30/2024S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSANov——4.87%—
1/30/2024S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSANov——4.77%—
1/30/2024Conf. Board Consumer ConfidenceJan111.6—110.7—
1/30/2024Conf. Board Present SituationJan——148.5—
1/30/2024Conf. Board ExpectationsJan——85.6—
1/30/2024JOLTS Job OpeningsDec——8790k—
1/30/2024Dallas Fed Services ActivityJan——-8.7—
1/31/2024MBA Mortgage Applications26-Jan——3.70%—
1/31/2024ADP Employment ChangeJan135k—164k—
1/31/2024Employment Cost Index4Q1.00%—1.10%—
1/31/2024MNI Chicago PMIJan48.1—46.947.2
1/31/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)31-Jan5.50%—5.50%—
1/31/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)31-Jan5.25%—5.25%—
1/31/2024Interest on Reserve Balances Rate1-Feb——5.40%—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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