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Author Jason Haley

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President Trump is nominating Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed Governor when Jerome Powell’s term expires in May.

The initial reaction overnight was a pop in the US dollar and Treasury yields out the curve given Warsh’s past hawkish stances, particularly related to the Fed using the balance sheet as a policy tool. Warsh is a former Fed governor and has generally been viewed as a credible candidate for the job despite Trump’s strong desire for a lower Fed Funds rate. The Treasury is twisting steeper so far this morning, with long end yields up 2-3 basis points. The December Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a larger-than-expected jump in wholesale prices, mostly reflecting higher costs of services versus the prior month. Multiple Fed leaders will be speaking today, including Fed Governor Michelle Bowman this afternoon, and multiple television appearances for Governor Stephen Miran, who once again dissented this week in favor of another rate cut.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
1/30/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%0.50%0.20%
1/30/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.70%0.00%
1/30/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%0.40%0.20%
1/30/2026PPI Final Demand YoY2.80%3.00%3.00%
1/30/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.90%3.30%3.00%
1/30/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY3.40%3.50%3.50%
1/30/2026MNI Chicago PMI43.7     —43.5
2/2/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —51.9
2/2/2026ISM New Orders     —     —47.7
2/2/2026ISM Employment     —     —44.9
2/2/2026ISM Manufacturing48.3     —47.9
2/2/2026ISM Prices Paid     —     —58.5
2/2/2026US Treasury Quarterly Borrowing Estimates   
2/3/2026JOLTS Job Openings7175k     —7146k
2/3/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.30%
2/3/2026JOLTS Quits Level     —     —3161k
2/3/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.00%
2/3/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1687k
2/3/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.10%
2/03/2026Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.30m     —16.02m
2/4/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-8.50%
2/4/2026ADP Employment Change45k     —41k
2/4/2026US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement   
2/4/2026S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —52.5
2/4/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —52.8
2/4/2026ISM Services Index53.5     —54.4
2/4/2026ISM Services Employment     —     —52
2/4/2026ISM Services Prices Paid     —     —64.3
2/4/2026ISM Services New Orders     —     —57.9
2/5/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —-8.30%
2/5/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —     —35553
2/5/2026Initial Jobless Claims210k     —209k
2/5/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —206.25k
2/5/2026Continuing Claims1850k     —1827k
2/6/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls65k     —50k
2/6/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-76k
2/6/2026Change in Private Payrolls77k     —37k
2/6/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls     —     —-8k
2/6/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —-22k
2/6/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.30%
2/6/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.60%     —3.80%
2/6/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.2     —34.2
2/6/2026Unemployment Rate4.40%     —4.40%
2/6/2026Labor Force Participation Rate62.40%     —62.40%
2/6/2026Underemployment Rate     —     —8.40%
2/6/2026Final Benchmark Payrolls Revision     —     —     —
2/6/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment55.8     —56.4
2/6/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —55.4
2/6/2026U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —57
2/6/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.00%
2/6/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation     —     —3.30%
2/6/2026Consumer Credit     —     —$4.229b

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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