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Author Jason Haley

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Treasury yields are little changed to begin the week as a modest curve flattening move overnight has largely faded this morning.

A partial government shutdown is likely to persist until tomorrow given that the House Rules committee doesn’t meet until 4 pm ET today to discuss the funding package passed by the Senate. On the data front, the January ISM manufacturing report will be released later this morning, and the ISM services report will come Wednesday. The most anticipated economic release for this week will be Friday’s jobs report, which is expected to show 65,000 jobs added to nonfarm payrolls and an unchanged unemployment rate (4.4%). The Fed speaker schedule is relatively light this week, and Atlanta Fed President Bostic is the only one speaking today.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/2/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI51.9     —51.9     —
2/2/2026ISM Manufacturing48.5     —47.9     —
2/2/2026ISM Prices Paid59.3     —58.5     —
2/2/2026ISM New Orders     —     —47.747.4
2/2/2026ISM Employment46     —44.944.8
2/2/2026US Treasury Quarterly Borrowing Estimates    
2/3/2026JOLTS Report May Be Delayed by Government Shutdown    
2/3/2026JOLTS Job Openings7250k     —7146k     —
2/3/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.30%     —
2/3/2026JOLTS Quits Level3104k     —3161k     —
2/3/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.00%     —
2/3/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1687k     —
2/3/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.10%     —
2/3/2026Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.30m     —16.02m     —
2/4/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-8.50%     —
2/4/2026ADP Employment Change45k     —41k     —
2/4/2026US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement    
2/4/2026S&P Global US Services PMI52.5     —52.5     —
2/4/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —52.8     —
2/4/2026ISM Services Index53.5     —54.453.8
2/4/2026ISM Services Employment     —     —5251.7
2/4/2026ISM Services Prices Paid     —     —64.365.1
2/4/2026ISM Services New Orders     —     —57.956.5
2/5/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —-8.30%     —
2/5/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —     —35553     —
2/5/2026Initial Jobless Claims212k     —209k     —
2/5/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —206.25k     —
2/5/2026Continuing Claims1850k     —1827k     —
2/6/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls65k     —50k     —
2/6/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-76k     —
2/6/2026Change in Private Payrolls75k     —37k     —
2/6/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls-7k     —-8k     —
2/6/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —-22k     —
2/6/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.30%     —
2/6/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.60%     —3.80%     —
2/6/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.2     —34.2     —
2/6/2026Unemployment Rate4.40%     —4.40%     —
2/6/2026Labor Force Participation Rate62.40%     —62.40%     —
2/6/2026Underemployment Rate     —     —8.40%     —
2/6/2026Final Benchmark Payrolls Revision     —     —     —     —
2/6/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment54.9     —56.4     —
2/6/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions53.5     —55.4     —
2/6/2026U. of Mich. Expectations54.7     —57     —
2/6/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.00%     —
2/6/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.20%     —3.30%     —
2/6/2026Consumer Credit$8.200b     —$4.229b     —
2/9/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.42%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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