Yields are 2 bps lower across the curve this morning as the market digests Powell’s Congressional testimony. The Fed Chair stated that “elevated inflation is not the only risk we face” as the cooling labor market presents another front for the central bank to address. Further softening may spur the Fed to act even if the pace of inflation doesn’t slow.
The Fed and the market will get another read on inflation tomorrow with the release of June CPI. The median forecast calls for a +0.1% increase in the headline number and a +0.2% increase in the core reading.
Hafizan Hamzah Senior Director, Investment Management Group
Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised 07/10/24 MBA Mortgage Applications — -0.20% -2.60% — 07/10/24 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.60% — 0.60% — 07/10/24 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.30% — 0.10% — 07/11/24 CPI MoM 0.10% — 0.00% — 07/11/24 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% — 0.20% — 07/11/24 CPI YoY 3.10% — 3.30% — 07/11/24 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 3.40% — 3.40% — 07/11/24 CPI Index NSA 314.587 — 314.069 — 07/11/24 CPI Core Index SA 318.841 — 318.14 — 07/11/24 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY — — 0.80% 0.70% 07/11/24 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY — — 0.50% — 07/11/24 Initial Jobless Claims 235k — 238k — 07/11/24 Continuing Claims 1864k — 1858k — 07/11/24 Monthly Budget Statement -$76.0b — -$347.1b — 07/12/24 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.10% — -0.20% — 07/12/24 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% — 0.00% — 07/12/24 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% — 0.00% — 07/12/24 PPI Final Demand YoY 2.30% — 2.20% — 07/12/24 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.50% — 2.30% — 07/12/24 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY — — 3.20% — 07/12/24 U. of Mich. Sentiment 68.5 — 68.2 — 07/12/24 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 66 — 65.9 — 07/12/24 U. of Mich. Expectations 70 — 69.6 — 07/12/24 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 3.00% — 3.00% — 07/12/24 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 3.00% — 3.00% —
Hafizan Hamzah Senior Director, Investment Management Group
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