The yield curve bull flattened overnight, reversing some of yesterday’s move. Retail sales exceeded expectations in June by a comfortable margin, and some of the May components were also revised higher.
The retail sales control group, which feeds the GDP personal consumption calculation, rose 0.9% m/m versus expectations of a 0.2% increase. This report may lead to upward revisions to Q2 GDP expectations from economists, but it alone is not likely enough to alter market expectations for the timing of Fed rate cuts.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 7/16/2024 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | -4.5 | -4.7 | — |
| 7/16/2024 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | -0.30% | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.30% |
| 7/16/2024 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.10% | 0.40% | -0.10% | 0.10% |
| 7/16/2024 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.20% | 0.80% | 0.10% | 0.30% |
| 7/16/2024 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.20% | 0.90% | 0.40% | — |
| 7/16/2024 | Import Price Index MoM | -0.20% | 0.00% | -0.40% | -0.20% |
| 7/16/2024 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | -0.20% | 0.20% | -0.30% | — |
| 7/16/2024 | Import Price Index YoY | 1.00% | 1.60% | 1.10% | 1.40% |
| 7/16/2024 | Export Price Index MoM | -0.10% | -0.50% | -0.60% | -0.70% |
| 7/16/2024 | Export Price Index YoY | 1.00% | 0.70% | 0.60% | 0.50% |
| 7/16/2024 | Business Inventories | 0.50% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 7/16/2024 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 43 | — | 43 | — |
| 7/17/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -0.20% | — |
| 7/17/2024 | Building Permits | 1400k | — | 1386k | 1399k |
| 7/17/2024 | Housing Starts | 1300k | — | 1277k | — |
| 7/17/2024 | Housing Starts MoM | 1.80% | — | -5.50% | — |
| 7/17/2024 | Building Permits MoM | 0.10% | — | -3.80% | -2.80% |
| 7/17/2024 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.90% | 0.70% |
| 7/17/2024 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.10% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 7/17/2024 | Capacity Utilization | 78.40% | — | 78.70% | 78.20% |
| 7/17/2024 | Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 7/18/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | 230k | — | 222k | — |
| 7/18/2024 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 2.9 | — | 1.3 | — |
| 7/18/2024 | Continuing Claims | 1856k | — | 1852k | — |
| 7/18/2024 | Leading Index | -0.30% | — | -0.50% | — |
| 7/18/2024 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $66.2b | — |
| 7/18/2024 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $123.1b | — |
| 7/19/2024 | Bloomberg July United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 7/22/2024 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | — | — | 0.18 | — |
| 7/23/2024 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | — | 2.9 | — |
| 7/23/2024 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | — | — | -10 | — |
| 7/23/2024 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | -11 | — |
| 7/23/2024 | Existing Home Sales | 3.96m | — | 4.11m | — |
| 7/23/2024 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -3.80% | — | -0.70% | — |
