Treasury yields are up 2 basis points in parallel fashion following a relatively quiet overnight session.
Yesterday’s post-CPI rally essentially erased the market’s pricing of a 50% probability of a rate hike at the July 29 FOMC meeting, but fed funds futures are pricing a more than 80% probability of one or more rate hikes by year end. Oil futures are little changed this morning, and US equity index futures are modestly higher.
On the data front, mortgage application activity was mixed last week as a 7.3% decline in new purchase applications outweighed a 3.5% increase in refi applications according to the MBA survey. The overall mortgage activity index fell 2.7%, and the average 30-year conventional contract rate rose 7 bps from the prior week to 6.65%, the highest in nearly two months. Later this morning, June wholesale inflation (PPI) data will be released, and four different Fed leaders will speak today, including Kevin Warsh’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 7/15/2026 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -2.70% | -2.20% | — |
| 7/15/2026 | Empire Manufacturing | 9.2 | 15.6 | 5.7 | — |
| 7/15/2026 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.00% | -0.30% | 1.10% | 0.60% |
| 7/15/2026 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.10% |
| 7/15/2026 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.80% | — |
| 7/15/2026 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 6.20% | 5.50% | 6.50% | 6.00% |
| 7/15/2026 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 5.10% | 4.70% | 4.90% | 4.60% |
| 7/15/2026 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | 5.20% | 5.10% | 5.10% | — |
| 7/15/2026 | Fed Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 7/16/2026 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | -10.1 | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 13 | — | 10.3 | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Initial Jobless Claims | 217k | — | 215k | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | -0.10% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 218.75k | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Continuing Claims | 1820k | — | 1814k | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.50% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 7/16/2026 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | — | 35 | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Business Inventories | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Pending Home Sales MoM | -0.50% | — | 3.80% | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | 2.10% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Import Price Index MoM | -0.60% | — | 1.90% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Import Price Index YoY | 6.70% | — | 6.70% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Export Price Index MoM | -0.60% | — | 1.30% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 11.20% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Housing Starts | 1312k | — | 1177k | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Housing Starts MoM | 11.30% | — | -15.40% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Building Permits | 1402k | — | 1410k | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Building Permits MoM | -0.20% | — | -0.90% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Capacity Utilization | 76.20% | — | 76.20% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 51 | — | 49.5 | — |
| 7/17/2026 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 48.5 | — | 47.7 | — |
| 7/17/2026 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 51.9 | — | 50.7 | — |
| 7/17/2026 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 4.50% | — | 4.60% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.30% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 7/20/2026 | Leading Index | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 7/21/2026 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | — | — | 19.750k | — |
| 7/21/2026 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | — | -25.8 | — |
| 7/22/2026 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -2.70% | — |
