Treasury yields have sold off this morning with rates up 3-4 bps across the entire curve.
This comes after news that the US has continued to intensify strikes against Iran. Bringing further inflation worries back into the picture, even after this week’s softer CPI print. US equity indexes are set to open lower this morning amid a sell-off in chip companies following TSMC’s earnings. TSMC flagged concerns as it raised its expected capital expenditures and warned of higher prices.
Kirby Hart
Director
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 7/16/2026 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | 8.7 | -10.1 | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 12.5 | 41.4 | 10.3 | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.90% | 1.00% |
| 7/16/2026 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | -0.10% | -0.20% | 0.80% | 1.00% |
| 7/16/2026 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.50% | 0.80% |
| 7/16/2026 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.70% | 0.80% |
| 7/16/2026 | Initial Jobless Claims | 217k | 208k | 215k | 216k |
| 7/16/2026 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | 214.25k | 218.75k | 219.00k |
| 7/16/2026 | Continuing Claims | 1818k | 1805k | 1814k | 1821k |
| 7/16/2026 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | — | 35 | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Business Inventories | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Pending Home Sales MoM | -0.50% | — | 3.80% | — |
| 7/16/2026 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | 2.00% | — | 2.10% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Import Price Index MoM | -0.60% | — | 1.90% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Import Price Index YoY | 6.70% | — | 6.70% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Export Price Index MoM | -0.60% | — | 1.30% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 11.20% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Housing Starts | 1312k | — | 1177k | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Housing Starts MoM | 11.30% | — | -15.40% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Building Permits | 1402k | — | 1410k | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Building Permits MoM | -0.20% | — | -0.90% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | Capacity Utilization | 76.20% | — | 76.20% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 51 | — | 49.5 | — |
| 7/17/2026 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 48.5 | — | 47.7 | — |
| 7/17/2026 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 51.9 | — | 50.7 | — |
| 7/17/2026 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 4.50% | — | 4.60% | — |
| 7/17/2026 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.30% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 7/20/2026 | Leading Index | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 7/21/2026 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | — | — | 19.750k | — |
| 7/21/2026 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | — | -25.8 | — |
| 7/22/2026 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -2.70% | — |
| 7/23/2026 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 208k | — |
| 7/23/2026 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 214.25k | — |
| 7/23/2026 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1805k | — |
| 7/23/2026 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | — | — | -0.1 | — |
| 7/23/2026 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | 11 | — |
