The Treasury curve is modestly steeper this morning with front-end yields 4 basis points lower to start the day.
Notable softening in German PMI data was primary catalyst for the rally in government bonds overnight, and the front-end of the curve is carrying over momentum from yesterday’s well-subscribed 2-year auction. The U.S. Treasury will sell $70 billion of new 5-year notes later this morning. On the economic front, preliminary July U.S. PMI data from S&P will be released later this morning, which is expected to show a slightly weaker reading for the services sector versus the prior month. The MBA mortgage activity index fell 2.2% last week amid a 4% decline in purchase applications, but the average 30-year conventional survey rate fell 5 basis points to 6.82% according to the survey, the lowest weekly reading since the week ended February 2.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 07/24/24 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -2.20% | 3.90% | — |
| 07/24/24 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$98.7b | -$96.8b | -$100.6b | -$99.4b |
| 07/24/24 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.50% | 0.20% | 0.60% | — |
| 07/24/24 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.50% | 0.70% | 0.70% | 0.60% |
| 07/24/24 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 51.6 | — | 51.6 | — |
| 07/24/24 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 54.9 | — | 55.3 | — |
| 07/24/24 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 54.2 | — | 54.8 | — |
| 07/24/24 | New Home Sales | 640k | — | 619k | — |
| 07/24/24 | New Home Sales MoM | 3.40% | — | -11.30% | — |
| 07/25/24 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.00% | — | 1.40% | — |
| 07/25/24 | Personal Consumption | 2.00% | — | 1.50% | — |
| 07/25/24 | GDP Price Index | 2.60% | — | 3.10% | — |
| 07/25/24 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | 2.70% | — | 3.70% | — |
| 07/25/24 | Initial Jobless Claims | 238k | — | 243k | — |
| 07/25/24 | Continuing Claims | 1869k | — | 1867k | — |
| 07/25/24 | Durable Goods Orders | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 07/25/24 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.20% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 07/25/24 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.20% | — | -0.60% | — |
| 07/25/24 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.20% | — | -0.60% | — |
| 07/25/24 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | -5 | — | -8 | — |
| 07/26/24 | Personal Income | 0.40% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 07/26/24 | Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 07/26/24 | Real Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 07/26/24 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 07/26/24 | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.40% | — | 2.60% | — |
| 07/26/24 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 07/26/24 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.60% | — |
| 07/26/24 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 66.4 | — | 66 | — |
| 07/26/24 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 64.4 | — | 64.1 | — |
| 07/26/24 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 67.5 | — | 67.2 | — |
| 07/26/24 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 2.90% | — | 2.90% | — |
| 07/26/24 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 2.90% | — | 2.90% | — |
| 07/26/24 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 2 | — |
