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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

Treasury yields 1-3 basis points lower/flatter to start the day following an active and choppy overnight session.

Fed funds futures are back to pricing less than a 50% chance of a September rate cut following yesterday’s FOMC meeting. Despite the two dissenting votes (Waller & Bowman), the tone of the official statement and Powell’s press conference suggests that the committee remains patient for the time being. Today’s data on June personal income, spending, and PCE were largely in line with expectations. Personal income was a bit stronger (0.3% m/m vs. 0.2% expected), and core PCE rose 0.3% m/m and 2.8% y/y. Spending on services moderated for a third consecutive month, increasing by just 0.05% in June. Lastly, President Trump announced several trade deals on the eve of his August 1 deadline, including 15% on imports from South Korea and 25% on imports from India.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
7/31/2025Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —139.80%-1.60%
7/31/2025Personal Income0.20%0.30%-0.40%
7/31/2025Personal Spending0.40%0.30%-0.10%
7/31/2025Real Personal Spending0.10%0.10%-0.30%
7/31/2025PCE Price Index MoM0.30%0.30%0.10%
7/31/2025PCE Price Index YoY2.50%2.60%2.30%
7/31/2025Core PCE Price Index MoM0.30%0.30%0.20%
7/31/2025Core PCE Price Index YoY2.70%2.80%2.70%
7/31/2025Employment Cost Index0.80%0.90%0.90%
7/31/2025Initial Jobless Claims224k218k217k
7/31/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —221.00k224.50k
7/31/2025Continuing Claims1953k1946k1955k
7/31/2025MNI Chicago PMI42     —40.4
8/1/2025Change in Nonfarm Payrolls104k     —147k
8/1/2025Change in Private Payrolls100k     —74k
8/1/2025Change in Manufact. Payrolls0k     —-7k
8/1/2025Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —150k
8/1/2025Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —16k
8/1/2025Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.20%
8/1/2025Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.80%     —3.70%
8/1/2025Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.2     —34.2
8/1/2025Unemployment Rate4.20%     —4.10%
8/1/2025Labor Force Participation Rate62.30%     —62.30%
8/1/2025Underemployment Rate     —     —7.70%
8/1/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI49.7     —49.5
8/1/2025ISM Manufacturing49.5     —49
8/1/2025ISM Prices Paid70     —69.7
8/1/2025ISM New Orders48.6     —46.4
8/1/2025ISM Employment46.8     —45
8/1/2025Construction Spending MoM0.00%     —-0.30%
8/1/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment62     —61.8
8/1/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions67.1     —66.8
8/1/2025U. of Mich. Expectations58.9     —58.6
8/1/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.40%     —4.40%
8/1/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.60%     —3.60%
8/1/2025Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.00m     —15.34m
8/4/2025Factory Orders-5.00%     —8.20%
8/4/2025Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —0.20%
8/4/2025Durable Goods Orders     —     —-9.30%
8/4/2025Durables Ex Transportation     —     —0.20%
8/4/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —-0.70%
8/4/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.40%
8/5/2025Trade Balance-$72.6b     —-$71.5b
8/5/2025Exports MoM     —     —-4.00%
8/5/2025Imports MoM     —     —-0.10%
8/5/2025S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —55.2
8/5/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —54.6
8/5/2025ISM Services Index51.4     —50.8
8/5/2025ISM Services Prices Paid     —     —67.5
8/5/2025ISM Services New Orders     —     —51.3
8/5/2025ISM Services Employment     —     —47.2
8/6/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-3.80%
8/7/2025Nonfarm Productivity     —     —-1.50%
8/7/2025Unit Labor Costs     —     —6.60%
8/7/2025Initial Jobless Claims     —     —218k
8/7/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —221.00k
8/7/2025Continuing Claims     —     —1946k
8/7/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —-0.30%
8/7/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —0.20%
8/7/2025NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.02%
8/7/2025Consumer Credit     —     —$5.102b

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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