Nonfarm payrolls added 206,000 jobs in June versus 190,000 expected, but the prior two months were revised lower by 111,000 jobs. Also, private payrolls added just 136,000 jobs (160k expected). Wage growth was in line with expectations, rising 0.3% m/m and 3.9% y/y in June. From the household survey, the unemployment rate ticked up 20 basis points to 4.1% (3.964% to 4.054% if unrounded), led by a 116,000 increase in household employment and a 277,000 increase in the official labor pool. The initial market reaction was a sharp rally in Treasuries, although likely on lighter volumes given the holiday. Yields are currently down 7 basis points in the 2–5-year part of the curve. Elsewhere, the Labour Party won the U.K. elections in a landslide, as expected, with Keir Starmer set to take over as prime minister. The left-leaning party won 412 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons over the conservative Tories, the most since the Tony Blair-led victory in 1997.
Jason Haley Chief Investment Officer
Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised 7/5/2024 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision — — -15k — 7/5/2024 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 190k — 272k — 7/5/2024 Change in Private Payrolls 160k — 229k — 7/5/2024 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 5k — 8k — 7/5/2024 Unemployment Rate 4.00% — 4.00% — 7/5/2024 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.30% — 0.40% — 7/5/2024 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 3.90% — 4.10% — 7/5/2024 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.3 — 34.3 — 7/5/2024 Labor Force Participation Rate 62.60% — 62.50% — 7/5/2024 Underemployment Rate — — 7.40% — 7/8/2024 NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations — — 3.17% — 7/8/2024 Consumer Credit $11.000b — $6.403b — 7/9/2024 NFIB Small Business Optimism — — 90.5 — 7/10/2024 MBA Mortgage Applications — — -2.60% — 7/10/2024 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM — — 0.10% — 7/10/2024 Wholesale Inventories MoM — — 0.60% —
Jason Haley Chief Investment Officer
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