Treasury yields are little changed to start the week following a 3-day rally last week that sent the 5-year note yield 20 basis points lower.
Half of that downward move came on Friday after the June jobs report came in a bit softer than expected. Fed funds futures are now firmly priced for 2 rate cuts later this year (November and December) and greater than a 50% probability of a September cut. The two main events for this week’s economic calendar are the June CPI report (Thursday) and Fed Chair Powell’s semiannual testimony before Congress (tomorrow and Wednesday). There will also be fresh supply of 3-year,10-year and 30-year Treasuries, beginning with a $58 billion 3-year note auction tomorrow.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 7/8/2024 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | 3.01% | — | 3.17% | — |
| 7/8/2024 | Consumer Credit | $8.850b | — | $6.403b | — |
| 7/9/2024 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 90.2 | — | 90.5 | — |
| 7/10/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -2.60% | — |
| 7/10/2024 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 7/10/2024 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.60% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 7/11/2024 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 0.80% | 0.70% |
| 7/11/2024 | CPI MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 7/11/2024 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 7/11/2024 | CPI YoY | 3.10% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 7/11/2024 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.40% | — | 3.40% | — |
| 7/11/2024 | CPI Index NSA | 314.581 | — | 314.069 | — |
| 7/11/2024 | CPI Core Index SA | 318.879 | — | 318.14 | — |
| 7/11/2024 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.50% | — |
| 7/11/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | 236k | — | 238k | — |
| 7/11/2024 | Continuing Claims | 1862k | — | 1858k | — |
| 7/11/2024 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$77.1b | — | -$347.1b | — |
| 7/12/2024 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.10% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 7/12/2024 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 7/12/2024 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 7/12/2024 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.30% | — | 2.20% | — |
| 7/12/2024 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.30% | — |
| 7/12/2024 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 3.20% | — |
| 7/12/2024 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 68.5 | — | 68.2 | — |
| 7/12/2024 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 65.9 | — |
| 7/12/2024 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 69.6 | — |
| 7/12/2024 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 2.90% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 7/12/2024 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.00% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 7/15/2024 | Empire Manufacturing | — | — | -6 | — |
