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Author Jason Haley

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Financial markets are relatively calm to start the day despite reports of the US and Iran trading airstrikes.

Oil prices are only modestly higher, and Treasuries are recovering some of yesterday’s losses (front end yields -2-3 bps). Equity futures are pointing to a higher open for US stocks. Later this morning, initial jobless claims are expected to come in at 217,000, essentially unchanged from the prior week. Two Fed leaders (Williams and Logan) are scheduled to speak at separate events today.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
7/9/2026Initial Jobless Claims217k215k215k217k
7/9/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —218.75k222.00k222.50k
7/9/2026Continuing Claims1814k1814k1814k1806k
7/9/2026Existing Home Sales4.20m     —4.17m     —
7/9/2026Existing Home Sales MoM1.00%     —3.20%     —
7/13/2026Federal Budget Balance     —     —-$292.6b     —
7/14/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism95.5     —95.3     —
7/14/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —21.000k     —
7/14/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —-0.40%-0.50%
7/14/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —-0.70%-0.80%
7/14/2026CPI MoM-0.10%     —0.50%     —
7/14/2026Core CPI MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
7/14/2026CPI YoY3.90%     —4.20%     —
7/14/2026Core CPI YoY2.90%     —2.90%     —
7/14/2026CPI Index NSA334.8     —335.12     —
7/14/2026Core CPI Index SA336.97     —336.12     —
7/14/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$26.1b     —
7/14/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$103.1b     —
7/15/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-2.20%     —
7/15/2026Empire Manufacturing10     —5.7     —
7/15/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.00%     —1.10%     —
7/15/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.40%     —0.40%     —
7/15/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.40%     —0.80%     —
7/15/2026PPI Final Demand YoY     —     —6.50%     —
7/15/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY     —     —4.90%     —
7/15/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —5.10%     —
7/15/2026Fed Releases Beige Book    
7/16/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-10.1     —
7/16/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook15     —10.3     —
7/16/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.30%     —0.90%     —
7/16/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —215k     —
7/16/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM-0.10%     —0.80%     —
7/16/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —218.75k     —
7/16/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%     —0.50%     —
7/16/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1814k     —
7/16/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.40%     —0.70%     —
7/16/2026NAHB Housing Market Index35     —35     —
7/16/2026Business Inventories     —     —0.50%     —
7/16/2026Pending Home Sales MoM     —     —3.80%     —
7/16/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —2.10%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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