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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

Treasury yields are leaking 2-3 basis points higher on the front-end of the curve to begin the month.

The move in bond yields corresponds with a modest uptick in oil prices this morning as markets continue to await a peace agreement between Iran and the U.S.  ISM manufacturing data for May will be released later this morning, as well as final estimates of May PMI. The greater focus of this week’s data calendar will be the May jobs report on Friday, which is expected to show 85,000 jobs added to nonfarm payrolls and no change in the unemployment rate.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/1/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI55.3     —55.3     —
6/1/2026ISM Manufacturing53     —52.7     —
6/1/2026ISM Prices Paid85     —84.6     —
6/1/2026ISM New Orders54.5     —54.1     —
6/1/2026ISM Employment48.2     —46.4     —
6/1/2026Construction Spending MoM0.20%     —0.60%     —
6/2/2026JOLTS Job Openings6865k     —6866k     —
6/2/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.10%     —
6/2/2026JOLTS Quits Level3125k     —3171k     —
6/2/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.00%     —
6/2/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1867k     —
6/2/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.20%     —
6/2/2026Omdia Total Vehicle Sales16.05m     —15.92m     —
6/3/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-8.50%     —
6/3/2026ADP Employment Change120k     —109k     —
6/3/2026S&P Global US Services PMI50.9     —50.9     —
6/3/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI51.7     —51.7     —
6/3/2026Factory Orders4.50%     —1.50%     —
6/3/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —1.60%     —
6/3/2026ISM Services Index53.8     —53.6     —
6/3/2026ISM Services Prices Paid72     —70.7     —
6/3/2026ISM Services New Orders53     —53.5     —
6/3/2026ISM Services Employment48.5     —48     —
6/3/2026Durable Goods Orders7.90%     —7.90%     —
6/3/2026Durables Ex Transportation1.10%     —1.10%     —
6/3/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —-1.10%     —
6/3/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.40%     —
6/3/2026Fed Releases Beige Book    
6/4/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —-20.90%     —
6/4/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —     —83387     —
6/4/2026Nonfarm Productivity0.50%     —0.80%     —
6/4/2026Unit Labor Costs2.50%     —2.30%     —
6/4/2026Initial Jobless Claims213k     —215k     —
6/4/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —209.00k     —
6/4/2026Continuing Claims1780k     —1786k     —
6/5/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls85k     —115k     —
6/5/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-16k     —
6/5/2026Change in Private Payrolls86k     —123k     —
6/5/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls2k     —-2k     —
6/5/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —48k     —
6/5/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
6/5/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.40%     —3.60%     —
6/5/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.3     —
6/5/2026Unemployment Rate4.30%     —4.30%     —
6/5/2026Labor Force Participation Rate61.80%     —61.80%     —
6/5/2026Underemployment Rate     —     —8.20%     —
6/5/2026Consumer Credit$17.750b     —$24.855b     —
6/8/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.64%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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