Site Search

Looking for something? Use the search bar below or visit our Resources page.


Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Financial markets are relatively quiet to end the week with no new headlines related to an Iran agreement.

Treasury yields are flat versus yesterday’s close, and US equity index futures are barely in the green an hour before the open. Fed funds futures remain hawkishly biased, pricing a 48% probability of a rate hike by year end and a 0% probability of a rate cut. Looking back to the end of February before the Iran war began, fed funds futures were pricing a 96% probability of one more rate cut by the end of 2026. Since that time, 2-year and 5-year Treasury yields are up 64 basis points. Multiple Fed leaders will speak today, including 2027 FOMC voters Kashkari, Bowman, and Paulson.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
5/29/2026Advance Goods Trade Balance-$87.0b-$82.4b-$87.9b-$85.3b
5/29/2026Advance Goods Imports MoM SA1.80%1.90%3.30%     —
5/29/2026Advance Goods Exports MoM SA2.50%4.00%2.50%2.90%
5/29/2026Retail Inventories MoM0.50%0.70%0.70%     —
5/29/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM0.80%0.50%1.30%1.50%
5/29/2026MNI Chicago PMI50.3     —49.2     —
6/1/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI55.3     —55.3     —
6/1/2026ISM Manufacturing53.2     —52.7     —
6/1/2026ISM Prices Paid85     —84.6     —
6/1/2026ISM New Orders54.5     —54.1     —
6/1/2026ISM Employment48.5     —46.4     —
6/1/2026Construction Spending MoM0.10%     —0.60%     —
6/2/2026JOLTS Job Openings6890k     —6866k     —
6/2/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.10%     —
6/2/2026JOLTS Quits Level     —     —3171k     —
6/2/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.00%     —
6/2/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1867k     —
6/2/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.20%     —
6/02/2026Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.00m     —15.92m     —
6/3/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-8.50%     —
6/3/2026ADP Employment Change120k     —109k     —
6/3/2026S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —50.9     —
6/3/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —51.7     —
6/3/2026Factory Orders4.30%     —1.50%     —
6/3/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —1.60%     —
6/3/2026ISM Services Index53.7     —53.6     —
6/3/2026ISM Services Prices Paid71     —70.7     —
6/3/2026ISM Services New Orders53     —53.5     —
6/3/2026ISM Services Employment48.5     —48     —
6/3/2026Durable Goods Orders     —     —7.90%     —
6/3/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —1.10%     —
6/3/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —-1.10%     —
6/3/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.40%     —
6/3/2026Fed Releases Beige Book    
6/4/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —-20.90%     —
6/4/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —     —83387     —
6/4/2026Nonfarm Productivity0.70%     —0.80%     —
6/4/2026Unit Labor Costs2.40%     —2.30%     —
6/4/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —215k     —
6/4/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —209.00k     —
6/4/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1786k     —
6/5/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls93k     —115k     —
6/5/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-16k     —
6/5/2026Change in Private Payrolls100k     —123k     —
6/5/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls4k     —-2k     —
6/5/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —48k     —
6/5/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
6/5/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.40%     —3.60%     —
6/5/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.3     —
6/5/2026Unemployment Rate4.30%     —4.30%     —
6/5/2026Labor Force Participation Rate61.90%     —61.80%     —
6/5/2026Underemployment Rate     —     —8.20%     —
6/5/2026Consumer Credit$18.000b     —$24.855b     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

  Headline Disclaimer

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.

Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.

Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.



Recent Beyond The Headlines


  Headlines RSS
Strategic Partners

Let’s Work Together

ALM First is your agile partner with a trusted history of delivering results.