Yields are little changed this morning as the market digests European election results and prepares for Wednesday’s Fed decision.
Unexpected results in France and Germany sent the Euro lower as concerns over more political strife in Europe. This came on the back of the currency’s largest loss vs the dollar in nearly two months last Friday, which was a result of the hotter-than-expected US Jobs number.
This Wednesday will be a busy one, with both CPI and the FOMC decision are on the docket. The market largely expects the Fed to leave rates unchanged, but the CPI print as well as Chair Powell’s press conference have the potential to spark volatility.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 06/10/24 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.26% | — |
| 06/11/24 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 89.8 | — | 89.7 | — |
| 06/12/24 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -5.20% | — |
| 06/12/24 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.50% | 0.60% |
| 06/12/24 | CPI MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 06/12/24 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 06/12/24 | CPI YoY | 3.40% | — | 3.40% | — |
| 06/12/24 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.50% | — | 3.60% | — |
| 06/12/24 | CPI Index NSA | 314.371 | — | 313.548 | — |
| 06/12/24 | CPI Core Index SA | — | — | 317.622 | — |
| 06/12/24 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 0.50% | — |
| 06/12/24 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 5.50% | — | 5.50% | — |
| 06/12/24 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 5.25% | — | 5.25% | — |
| 06/12/24 | Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | 5.40% | — | 5.40% | — |
| 06/12/24 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr | 4.88% | — | 4.63% | — |
| 06/12/24 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr | 4.13% | — | 3.88% | — |
| 06/12/24 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs | 3.13% | — | 3.13% | — |
| 06/12/24 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run | 2.75% | — | 2.56% | — |
| 06/12/24 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$275.0b | — | $209.5b | — |
| 06/13/24 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | — | 229k | — |
| 06/13/24 | Continuing Claims | 1800k | — | 1792k | — |
| 06/13/24 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 06/13/24 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 06/13/24 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 06/13/24 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.20% | — |
| 06/13/24 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.40% | — |
| 06/13/24 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 3.10% | — |
| 06/14/24 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 06/14/24 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 06/14/24 | Import Price Index YoY | 1.60% | — | 1.10% | — |
| 06/14/24 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 06/14/24 | Export Price Index YoY | 0.10% | — | -1.00% | — |
| 06/14/24 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 72.5 | — | 69.1 | — |
| 06/14/24 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 69.6 | — |
| 06/14/24 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 68.8 | — |
| 06/14/24 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 3.20% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 06/14/24 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.00% | — | 3.00% | — |
