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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

An upside surprise in the May jobs report has sparked a strong selloff in Treasuries this morning, with yields currently up 10-15 basis points across the curve. 

Nonfarm payrolls added 272,000 jobs last month, nearly 100,000 more than expected, and wage growth was 0.4% m/m, up from 0.2% the previous month and 0.3% expected. Year-over-year, wages were up 4.1%. The household survey painted a different picture though. The unemployment rate rose to 4% (3.964% unrounded), driven by a 408,000 decrease in household employment and a 250,000 decrease in the official labor force. However, markets are more focused on payrolls and wage data, which appears broad-based across sectors.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/7/2024Two-Month Payroll Net Revision—-15k-22k—
6/7/2024Change in Nonfarm Payrolls180k272k175k165k
6/7/2024Change in Private Payrolls165k229k167k158k
6/7/2024Change in Manufact. Payrolls5k8k8k6k
6/7/2024Unemployment Rate3.90%4.00%3.90%—
6/7/2024Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.40%0.20%—
6/7/2024Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.90%4.10%3.90%4.00%
6/7/2024Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.334.334.3—
6/7/2024Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%62.50%62.70%—
6/7/2024Underemployment Rate—7.40%7.40%—
6/7/2024Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.50%—-1.30%—
6/7/2024Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%—0.20%—
6/7/2024Household Change in Net Worth——$4839b—
6/7/2024Consumer Credit$10.000b—$6.274b—
6/10/2024NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations——3.26%—
6/11/2024NFIB Small Business Optimism89.7—89.7—
6/12/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——-5.20%—
6/12/2024CPI MoM0.10%—0.30%—
6/12/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%—0.30%—
6/12/2024CPI YoY3.40%—3.40%—
6/12/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.50%—3.60%—
6/12/2024CPI Index NSA314.346—313.55—
6/12/2024CPI Core Index SA——317.62—
6/12/2024Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY——0.50%—
6/12/2024Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY——0.50%0.60%
6/12/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)5.50%—5.50%—
6/12/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)5.25%—5.25%—
6/12/2024Interest on Reserve Balances Rate——5.40%—
6/12/2024Monthly Budget Statement——$209.5b—
6/13/2024Initial Jobless Claims——229k—
6/13/2024Continuing Claims——1792k—
6/13/2024PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%—0.50%—
6/13/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%—0.50%—
6/13/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM——0.40%—
6/13/2024PPI Final Demand YoY——2.20%—
6/13/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY——2.40%—
6/13/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY——3.10%—
6/14/2024Import Price Index MoM0.10%—0.90%—
6/14/2024Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM——0.70%—
6/14/2024Import Price Index YoY——1.10%—
6/14/2024Export Price Index MoM0.20%—0.50%—
6/14/2024Export Price Index YoY——-1.00%—
6/14/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment73—69.1—
6/14/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions——69.6—
6/14/2024U. of Mich. Expectations——68.8—
6/14/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation——3.30%—
6/14/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation——3.00%—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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