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Author Kirby Hart

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are 3-4 bps higher across the curve to start the week.

Middle East negotiations seem to be progressing, even with President Trump threatening to strike Iran if Hezbollah is not brought under control. Oil continues its push lower, a further sign of progress in these negotiations in Switzerland. Brent crude dropped below $79 a barrel for the first time since the end of February. Equity futures show a slightly positive opening to the week. Everybody is now turning to Thursday’s PCE inflation reading to get a clearer picture of the chances of a rate hike later this year.

Kirby Hart
Director

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/23/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —25.500k     —
6/23/2026Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-23.6     —
6/23/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI54.5     —55.1     —
6/23/2026S&P Global US Services PMI51     —50.7     —
6/23/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI52.1     —51.5     —
6/23/2026Richmond Fed Manufact. Index8     —13     —
6/23/2026Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —0     —
6/24/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-3.80%     —
6/24/2026Current Account Balance-$208.8b     —-$190.7b     —
6/24/2026New Home Sales640k     —622k     —
6/24/2026New Home Sales MoM3.70%     —-6.20%     —
6/24/2026Building Permits1418k     —1413k     —
6/24/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —-0.70%     —
6/25/2026Personal Income0.40%     —0.00%     —
6/25/2026Personal Spending0.60%     —0.50%     —
6/25/2026Real Personal Spending0.20%     —0.10%     —
6/25/2026PCE Price Index MoM0.50%     —0.40%     —
6/25/2026PCE Price Index YoY4.10%     —3.80%     —
6/25/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
6/25/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY3.40%     —3.30%     —
6/25/2026GDP Annualized QoQ1.60%     —1.60%     —
6/25/2026Personal Consumption1.40%     —1.40%     —
6/25/2026GDP Price Index3.50%     —3.50%     —
6/25/2026Core PCE Price Index QoQ4.40%     —4.40%     —
6/25/2026Initial Jobless Claims225k     —226k     —
6/25/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —223.25k     —
6/25/2026Continuing Claims1805k     —1810k     —
6/25/2026Durable Goods Orders-4.90%     —8.00%     —
6/25/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.50%     —1.10%     —
6/25/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.60%     —-1.00%     —
6/25/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.50%     —0.40%     —
6/25/2026Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index     —     —0.14     —
6/25/2026Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity     —     —8     —
6/26/2026Bloomberg June United States Economic Survey    
6/26/2026Advance Goods Trade Balance-$85.0b     —-$82.4b-$83.0b
6/26/2026Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —1.90%2.00%
6/26/2026Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —     —4.00%3.80%
6/26/2026Retail Inventories MoM0.40%     —0.70%     —
6/26/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM0.30%     —0.60%     —
6/26/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment50     —48.9     —
6/26/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions49     —48.4     —
6/26/2026U. of Mich. Expectations49.3     —49.3     —
6/26/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.80%     —4.60%     —
6/26/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation     —     —3.40%     —
6/26/2026Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —10     —
6/29/2026Dallas Fed Manf. Activity     —     —0.4     —

Kirby Hart

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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