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Author Kirby Hart

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Estimated

Treasury yields are 5 bps higher across the majority of the curve following headlines about the war in Iran.

Tensions have risen again in the Middle East from strains put on the ceasefire as the US intercepted Iranian drones targeting other countries and struck an Iranian command center in response. This has caused Brent oil futures to rise by 2.5% and the 10-year Treasury to rise to 4.49%. S&P 500 futures point to a lower opening after the nine-day rally in the index. The S&P 500 index is 1 positive day away from being the longest daily streak since 1995 (10 days). On the economic data front, ADP released its May private-sector payrolls report, which showed a larger-than-expected increase in jobs. The labor market remains resilient despite the elevated energy costs.

Kirby Hart
Director

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/3/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —-2.50%-8.50%     —
6/3/2026ADP Employment Change120k122k109k105k
6/3/2026S&P Global US Services PMI51     —50.9     —
6/3/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI51.7     —51.7     —
6/3/2026ISM Services Index53.8     —53.6     —
6/3/2026ISM Services Prices Paid72.3     —70.7     —
6/3/2026ISM Services New Orders53.4     —53.5     —
6/3/2026ISM Services Employment48.8     —48     —
6/3/2026Factory Orders4.60%     —1.50%     —
6/3/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans0.80%     —1.60%     —
6/3/2026Durable Goods Orders7.90%     —7.90%     —
6/3/2026Durables Ex Transportation1.10%     —1.10%     —
6/3/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-1.10%     —-1.10%     —
6/3/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.40%     —0.40%     —
6/3/2026Fed Releases Beige Book    
6/4/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —-20.90%     —
6/4/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —     —83387     —
6/4/2026Nonfarm Productivity0.40%     —0.80%     —
6/4/2026Unit Labor Costs2.40%     —2.30%     —
6/4/2026Initial Jobless Claims215k     —215k     —
6/4/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —209.00k     —
6/4/2026Continuing Claims1780k     —1786k     —
6/5/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls85k     —115k     —
6/5/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-16k     —
6/5/2026Change in Private Payrolls86k     —123k     —
6/5/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls2k     —-2k     —
6/5/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —48k     —
6/5/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
6/5/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.40%     —3.60%     —
6/5/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.3     —
6/5/2026Unemployment Rate4.30%     —4.30%     —
6/5/2026Labor Force Participation Rate61.80%     —61.80%     —
6/5/2026Underemployment Rate     —     —8.20%     —
6/5/2026Consumer Credit$17.750b     —$24.855b     —
6/8/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.64%     —
6/9/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism     —     —95.9     —
6/9/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —35.750k     —
6/9/2026Trade Balance     —     —-$60.3b     —
6/9/2026Imports MoM     —     —2.30%     —
6/9/2026Exports MoM     —     —2.00%     —
6/9/2026Existing Home Sales4.07m     —4.02m     —
6/9/2026Existing Home Sales MoM     —     —0.20%     —
6/9/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —0.50%     —
6/9/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —2.80%     —
6/10/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-2.50%     —
6/10/2026CPI MoM0.50%     —0.60%     —
6/10/2026Core CPI MoM0.30%     —0.40%     —
6/10/2026CPI YoY4.20%     —3.80%     —
6/10/2026Core CPI YoY3.00%     —2.80%     —
6/10/2026CPI Index NSA     —     —333.02     —
6/10/2026Core CPI Index SA     —     —335.423     —
6/10/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —-0.30%     —
6/10/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —-0.20%     —
6/10/2026Federal Budget Balance     —     —$215.0b     —

Kirby Hart

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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