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Author Hafizan Hamzah

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The Treasury rally has taken a bit of a breather this morning, with the front-end and belly essentially unchanged and long-end yields down only a basis point or two.

This is after yesterday’s job data-driven rally saw the 10-year fall 10 bps. ADP hiring data increased by 37,000, well below expectations. May’s reading was the slowest pace in two years. Business services, education, and healthcare all shed jobs. This slower pace of job growth has renewed concerns that the US economy may be faltering.

Initial jobless claims hit 247,000 last week, its highest level since October. The median forecast called for an increase of 235,000. The prior week’s number was revised down to 239,000 from 240,000, and the 4-week moving average sits at 235,000.

We’ll get another look at job data tomorrow with the release of non-farm payrolls; the median forecast calls for an increase of 126,000.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/5/2025Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —47.00%62.70%     —
6/5/2025Trade Balance-$66.0b-$61.6b-$140.5b-$138.3b
6/5/2025Nonfarm Productivity-0.80%-1.50%-0.80%     —
6/5/2025Unit Labor Costs5.70%6.60%5.70%     —
6/5/2025Initial Jobless Claims235k247k240k239k
6/5/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —235.00k230.75k230.50k
6/5/2025Continuing Claims1910k1904k1919k1907k
6/6/2025Change in Nonfarm Payrolls126k     —177k     —
6/6/2025Change in Private Payrolls120k     —167k     —
6/6/2025Change in Manufact. Payrolls-4k     —-1k     —
6/6/2025Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —155k     —
6/6/2025Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-58k     —
6/6/2025Unemployment Rate4.20%     —4.20%     —
6/6/2025Labor Force Participation Rate62.60%     —62.60%     —
6/6/2025Underemployment Rate     —     —7.80%     —
6/6/2025Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
6/6/2025Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.70%     —3.80%     —
6/6/2025Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.3     —
6/6/2025Consumer Credit$10.000b     —$10.172b     —
6/9/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.30%     —0.60%     —
6/9/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —0.00%     —
6/9/2025NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.63%     —
6/10/2025NFIB Small Business Optimism95.9     —95.8     —
6/11/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-3.90%     —
6/11/2025CPI MoM0.20%     —0.20%     —
6/11/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
6/11/2025CPI YoY2.50%     —2.30%     —
6/11/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.90%     —2.80%     —
6/11/2025CPI Index NSA     —     —320.795     —
6/11/2025CPI Core Index SA     —     —326.43     —
6/11/2025Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —1.40%     —
6/11/2025Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —1.70%     —
6/11/2025Federal Budget Balance     —     —$258.4b     —
6/12/2025PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%     —-0.50%     —
6/12/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —-0.40%     —
6/12/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM     —     —-0.10%     —
6/12/2025PPI Final Demand YoY     —     —2.40%     —
6/12/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY     —     —3.10%     —
6/12/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —2.90%     —
6/12/2025Initial Jobless Claims     —     —247k     —
6/12/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —235.00k     —
6/12/2025Continuing Claims     —     —1904k     —
6/12/2025Household Change in Net Worth     —     —$164b     —

Hafizan Hamzah

Senior Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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