Site Search

Looking for something? Use the search bar below or visit our Resources page.


Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are moving higher again this morning as higher oil prices stoke inflation worries in global bond markets.

A European Central Bank policymaker, Peter Kazimir, suggested that a pivot to rate hikes could soon be in the works if inflation risks from the Iran conflict persist. The February CPI report was in line with expectations. Headline inflation was up 0.3% m/m, while the core rate rose 0.2% m/m. Year-over-year measures held steady at 2.4% (headline) and 2.5% (core). The core rate saw increases in medical services (0.6%) and apparel (1.3%) offset by another drop in used car prices (-0.4%). The headline reading doesn’t account for the recent spike on oil prices, which will likely have a notable impact at least while crude and natural gas prices remain elevated.

Jason Haley
President & Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
3/11/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —3.20%11.00%
3/11/2026CPI MoM0.30%0.30%0.20%
3/11/2026Core CPI MoM0.20%0.20%0.30%
3/11/2026CPI YoY2.40%2.40%2.40%
3/11/2026Core CPI YoY2.50%2.50%2.50%
3/11/2026CPI Index NSA326.762326.79325.25
3/11/2026Core CPI Index SA333.59333.51332.79
3/11/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —1.40%1.20%
3/11/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —1.70%1.90%
3/11/2026Federal Budget Balance-$310.0b     —-$94.6b
3/12/2026Trade Balance-$66.0b     —-$70.3b
3/12/2026Imports MoM     —     —3.60%
3/12/2026Exports MoM     —     —-1.70%
3/12/2026Initial Jobless Claims215k     —213k
3/12/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —215.75k
3/12/2026Continuing Claims1850k     —1868k
3/12/2026Housing Starts1341k     —1404k
3/12/2026Building Permits1410k     —     —
3/12/2026Housing Starts MoM-4.50%     —6.20%
3/12/2026Building Permits MoM-3.10%     —     —
3/12/2026Household Change in Net Worth     —     —$6064b
3/13/2026Personal Income0.50%     —0.30%
3/13/2026Personal Spending0.30%     —0.40%
3/13/2026Real Personal Spending0.00%     —0.10%
3/13/2026PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.40%
3/13/2026PCE Price Index YoY2.90%     —2.90%
3/13/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM0.40%     —0.40%
3/13/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY3.10%     —3.00%
3/13/2026Durable Goods Orders1.20%     —-1.40%
3/13/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.50%     —1.00%
3/13/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%     —0.80%
3/13/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.50%     —1.00%
3/13/2026GDP Annualized QoQ1.40%     —1.40%
3/13/2026Personal Consumption2.40%     —2.40%
3/13/2026GDP Price Index3.60%     —3.60%
3/13/2026Core PCE Price Index QoQ2.70%     —2.70%
3/13/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment55     —56.6
3/13/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions54.6     —56.6
3/13/2026U. of Mich. Expectations54.4     —56.6
3/13/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.70%     —3.40%
3/13/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.40%     —3.30%
3/13/2026JOLTS Job Openings6750k     —6542k
3/13/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —3.90%
3/13/2026JOLTS Quits Level3109k     —3204k
3/13/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.00%
3/13/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level1764k     —1762k
3/13/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.10%
3/16/2026Empire Manufacturing3.9     —7.1
3/16/2026Industrial Production MoM0.20%     —0.70%
3/16/2026Manufacturing (SIC) Production     —     —0.60%
3/16/2026Capacity Utilization76.20%     —76.20%
3/16/2026NAHB Housing Market Index37     —36
3/17/2026Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey   
3/17/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —15.500k
3/17/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-25.7
3/17/2026Leading Index     —     —-0.20%
3/17/2026Pending Home Sales MoM-1.00%     —-0.80%
3/17/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —-1.20%
3/18/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —3.20%
3/18/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%     —0.50%
3/18/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —0.80%
3/18/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM     —     —0.30%
3/18/2026PPI Final Demand YoY     —     —2.90%
3/18/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY     —     —3.60%
3/18/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —3.40%
3/18/2026Factory Orders     —     —-0.70%
3/18/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —0.40%
3/18/2026Durable Goods Orders     —     —-1.40%
3/18/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —1.00%
3/18/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.80%
3/18/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —1.00%
3/18/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)3.75%     —3.75%
3/18/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.50%     —3.50%
3/18/2026Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate     —     —3.65%
3/18/2026Fed Reverse Repo Rate     —     —3.50%
3/18/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr     —     —3.63%
3/18/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr     —     —3.38%
3/18/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs     —     —3.13%
3/18/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run     —     —3.00%
3/18/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$44.9b
3/18/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$28.0b

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

  Headline Disclaimer

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.

Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.

Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.



Recent Beyond The Headlines


  Headlines RSS
Strategic Partners

Let’s Work Together

ALM First is your agile partner with a trusted history of delivering results.